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I think this particular storm is on schedule for what models were depicting, actually, a few days ago. The mystery in the models is why they are lost at the moment when clearly there is at least some steady improvement, albeit slow upon the hour. I wouldn't worry about that though, if you are an enthusiast for seeing these things on the map.
You have to remember that Bertha had a closed low robustly spinning upon leaving the African continent. Bertha was also pretty much a fantastic anomaly, actually, this one is too for that matter. One's an accident, but two? A bit intriguing and there's a physical/causal relationship to some back ground signal that really wants to get a CV season underway at least excuse imaginable. If we get a 3rd (which the 12z CMC suggests) that's a slam dunk and this season has something unique about it.
That said, 94L was a weak wave really when it came off Africa... In fact, we should really be more amazed that it has stoked that much momentum from so little.

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But.... 94L looked - to me - a lot more impressive 24 hours ago... and the GFS was going crazy with it at that time. Now, it looks pretty sick, and the GFS and GFDL actually lost it for two runs (they apear to have picked it back up now in the latest runs, though). Certainly 94L was weaker than Bertha when it came off Africa, but I don't see that it's done as the models projected, in terms of development. Were the models not forecasting it to have developed into a T.D. by now?

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Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)

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