cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2348
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Bertha, East of Jacksonville, and Two Caribbean Waves But No Real Development Expected
Thu Jul 17 2008 04:17 PM
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Here's a quick and dirty overview.
94L has likely devolved into a fast-moving wave, with strong winds at the surface, but far less of anything that resembles a closed low at the surface than it had 24-72 hours ago. It needs to slow down a bit more, and get out from the graveyard. Once it is in the central to western Caribbean, shear should be far less, and its ability to capture deep, tropical moisture far greater. It probably stands another very good chance of earning a name by the time it is south of Jamaica.
Should 94L develop, it will probably pose some threat of a WNW to NW turn. Should it stay too weak, chances are it runs right into central America.. maybe to do something once in the east pac.
95L could still organize just enough, and just soon enough, to get an upgrade. It has some banding features, and a healthy broad area of low pressure. Again, like 94L behind it, should it not do something while in the Carib, another one for the east pac to entertain doing something with.
96L (formerly the unnumbered "Invest" sitting over Florida) may actually have the best chance of doing something within the next 24 hours of all three of these. When sitting just offshore of the west coast of the state, it did indeed have something of a closed low at at the lower levels, but only barely so at the surface - far too much land interaction - and then, it just went on inland. Having been held in check by this, it continues off to the NNE, or perhaps NNW now, and is in a somewhat favorable environment to reconstitute itself into something it wanted to become while over Florida, but couldn't. Visible loops have "the look," already. Should it earn a name, places right along the coast should certainly be watching --- perhaps especially the Carolinas.
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