cieldumort
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Posts: 2311
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast
Thu Jul 17 2008 10:50 PM
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96L potentially poses the soonest threat to the CONUS. Conditions for further development aren't at all half bad, and it looks like a closed low at the surface is already taking shape. Steering currents may be a little weak right now, allowing it even more time to percolate and come together while over the warm Gulf Stream, but eventually a turn back to the NNE or N or NNW looks entirely plausible.. possibly putting the Carolinas in play for a landfalling named system.
In the very near-term, looks like 95L might still be trying to pull an 11th hour upset.
Currently, there appears to be two LLCs, within the much broader low pressure area. One of these, situated near 14.2N 83W, may becoming dominant. The other, which has been the source of tracking for purposes of assigning Dvorak T numbers and everything else, located nearer to 13.5N 82.5W, does have a nice blow up of convection right on top, but this LLCC is also not within the approximate center of the broad circulation center... and area buoy and ship reports suggest that the dominant center could be the one a little more north.
And here's a recent buoy report worth noting:
Station 42057 - Western Caribbean
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
2109 30.9 kts ENE ( 58 deg true )
Longer-range, Invest 94L has every reason to have those of us in the western GOM watching closely. It has managed to stay just weak enough all along to keep south of an early turn to the NW and/or recurvature. Once it is west of the Graveyard and into the central Caribbean, there's every reason to believe that it could snap together on a dime, and track WNW to NW.
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