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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)
Td#2
ADV#1 10:00 pm EDT
9.1N 41.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean
      Fri Jul 18 2008 03:18 PM

I"ve been more bullish than some on 94L all along, but even today it hasn't gotten it quite together..the long Visible loop confirms the LLC remains separated from most of the convection which is now NE of it. I have a feeling the ULL to the NNW of it is causing shear over the LLC. I'm nervous about it though because of its location and if it were to "ramp up" it would pose a threat into the GOM...if it remains weak it will chug merrily into Central America.
Right now this doesn't seem to be any further along than it was two days ago when I last took a long look.
I will reduce my probability to those posted by the host about 40% (down from 50). Has the recon data been posted?

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Fri Jul 18 2008 03:21 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression MikeCAdministrator Fri Jul 18 2008 03:18 PM
. * * Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew DarleneCane   Sat Jul 19 2008 08:36 AM
. * * 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 19 2008 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 18 2008 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression wxman007   Fri Jul 18 2008 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression cieldumort   Fri Jul 18 2008 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression Hugh   Fri Jul 18 2008 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression DMFischer   Fri Jul 18 2008 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression Random Chaos   Fri Jul 18 2008 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression jessiej   Fri Jul 18 2008 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression metwannabe   Fri Jul 18 2008 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Georgia Low Forming into Tropical Depression weatherguy08   Fri Jul 18 2008 08:26 PM
. * * Advisories on 96L may be started by 11 cieldumort   Fri Jul 18 2008 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean Hugh   Fri Jul 18 2008 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 18 2008 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean weatherguy08   Fri Jul 18 2008 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean CANELURKER   Fri Jul 18 2008 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean weatherguy08   Fri Jul 18 2008 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean zacros   Fri Jul 18 2008 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean Mar32366   Fri Jul 18 2008 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean doug   Fri Jul 18 2008 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean doug   Fri Jul 18 2008 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean Robert   Fri Jul 18 2008 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean craigm   Fri Jul 18 2008 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean craigm   Fri Jul 18 2008 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 18 2008 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean cchsweatherman   Fri Jul 18 2008 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean weatherguy08   Fri Jul 18 2008 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean Rich B   Fri Jul 18 2008 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean cieldumort   Fri Jul 18 2008 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Fri Jul 18 2008 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean zacros   Fri Jul 18 2008 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean WeatherNut   Fri Jul 18 2008 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Charleston, SC AM Discussion (Portion) LoisCane   Fri Jul 18 2008 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Charleston, SC AM Discussion (Portion) zacros   Fri Jul 18 2008 08:57 AM
. * * Charleston, SC AM Discussion (Portion) Wingman51   Fri Jul 18 2008 08:24 AM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast scottsvb   Thu Jul 17 2008 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 17 2008 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast Ed in Va   Thu Jul 17 2008 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast cieldumort   Thu Jul 17 2008 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast weathernet   Thu Jul 17 2008 06:47 PM

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