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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2328
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew
Sat Jul 19 2008 02:21 AM

Re: 94L

Models are finally starting to initialize this disturbance correctly. By my own best forecasting ability, I'm still on a 75% chance that it becomes a TS within the next 6 days (probably sooner, if it does) and a 40% probability of it becoming a hurricane within 6 days (and probably sooner, if it does), and a 10% chance of it becoming a major hurricane within 6 days. Feeling vindicated so far tonight... in fact, GFDL just cranked out this whopper...certainly not the sort of thing we would like to see verified.

TD 3 should have a good chance of earning a name, provided it stays just to the right enough (and offshore!) to avoid ingesting too much of that dry air from its left, while enjoying just enough interaction with the gulf stream. In fact, it appears that it could simply ride the stream long enough.. and pick up a pace just fast enough.. to have reasonably low net-effective shear while ingesting plenty of gulf stream energy juice. While that's not even in the same galaxy as the current official forecast, and judging by how slowly its been getting its act together, looks like a bit of a stretch right now, I wouldn't write that possibility off. We've seen a few gulf streamers really pop this way from time to time.

3 AM EDT Addendum:

Sustained tropical storm-force winds are likely now occurring within 94L:

Invest 94L Location - 15N 74W (Per NRL at this time)

Station 42058 - Central Caribbean 15.09 N 75.06 W
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed:
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
0601 33.4 kts ESE ( 104 deg true )

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Hunter	Sat Jul 19 2008 02:21 AM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Rich B	Tue Jul 22 2008 11:31 AM
Re: Recon	Sophie	Mon Jul 21 2008 10:43 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	MikeC	Mon Jul 21 2008 09:29 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Hunter	Tue Jul 22 2008 05:32 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Hunter	Tue Jul 22 2008 07:29 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Hunter	Wed Jul 23 2008 07:20 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Cooper	Wed Jul 23 2008 07:40 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Hunter	Wed Jul 23 2008 08:21 PM
Re: Recon	Old Sailor	Mon Jul 21 2008 07:33 PM
Re: Recon	WeatherNut	Mon Jul 21 2008 10:17 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Hunter	Mon Jul 21 2008 07:20 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	ritavet	Mon Jul 21 2008 02:22 AM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Cooper	Sun Jul 20 2008 08:18 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	MikeC	Mon Jul 21 2008 09:18 AM
Re: 94L	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 20 2008 08:52 AM
Re: 94L	islandtime	Sun Jul 20 2008 02:47 PM
Re: 94L	dat_weather_guy	Sun Jul 20 2008 06:42 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast	Storm Hunter	Sat Jul 19 2008 09:18 PM
Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew	weatherguy08	Sat Jul 19 2008 09:12 AM
Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew	weatherguy08	Sat Jul 19 2008 10:34 PM
think it looks better tonight/now than for a while	LoisCane	Sun Jul 20 2008 12:12 AM
Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew	Random Chaos	Sat Jul 19 2008 07:34 AM
Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew	cieldumort	Sat Jul 19 2008 02:21 AM
Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Jul 18 2008 10:47 AM
Re: Charleston, SC AM Discussion (Portion)	allan	Fri Jul 18 2008 10:08 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	allan	Wed Jul 16 2008 11:07 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	rmbjoe1954	Wed Jul 16 2008 11:01 AM

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