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With today's 5PM NHC #HurricaneBeryl update, the U.S. is now officially in the cone for the first time. Jamaica to Mexico to Texas.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 307 (Idalia) , Major: 307 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 307 (Idalia) Major: 307 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland

Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew
Sat Jul 19 2008 07:34 AM

Re: 94L's GFDL run

The HWRF run shows something similar, but on a very different track:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.c...;hour=Animation

I'm thinking GFDL and HWRF are both picking up on high SSTs in the gulf. Much higher than in the Caribbean, and for a fast moving storm, the depth of the warm water has less impact (depth is shown in the Z26 map, and affects the HHC map).

See SST26 and HHC maps here: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html

The biggest question is track. NOGAPS takes it into the Yucatan, preventing any chance of significant development. GFS brings it into the gulf, on about the same track as the HWRF. GFDL is the eastern outlier of these major models.

If you want to see all the major model tracks: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ (currently 94L is frame 3, but it could change)

Speaking of model runs, anyone know anything about the GHM model? I haven't noticed it before, and it's listed over at NCEP: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur/storm_1/00/index_hurpage.shtml

Edit: PS - I like Avila's comment on Bertha in the latest NHC forecast discussion

- "CONSQUENTLY...BERTHA HAS TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...FAMOUS LAST WORDS. "

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Jul 19 2008 07:49 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Hunter	Sat Jul 19 2008 07:34 AM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Rich B	Tue Jul 22 2008 11:31 AM
Re: Recon	Sophie	Mon Jul 21 2008 10:43 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	MikeC	Mon Jul 21 2008 09:29 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Hunter	Tue Jul 22 2008 05:32 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Hunter	Tue Jul 22 2008 07:29 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Hunter	Wed Jul 23 2008 07:20 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Cooper	Wed Jul 23 2008 07:40 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Hunter	Wed Jul 23 2008 08:21 PM
Re: Recon	Old Sailor	Mon Jul 21 2008 07:33 PM
Re: Recon	WeatherNut	Mon Jul 21 2008 10:17 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Hunter	Mon Jul 21 2008 07:20 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	ritavet	Mon Jul 21 2008 02:22 AM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	Storm Cooper	Sun Jul 20 2008 08:18 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge	MikeC	Mon Jul 21 2008 09:18 AM
Re: 94L	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 20 2008 08:52 AM
Re: 94L	islandtime	Sun Jul 20 2008 02:47 PM
Re: 94L	dat_weather_guy	Sun Jul 20 2008 06:42 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast	Storm Hunter	Sat Jul 19 2008 09:18 PM
Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew	weatherguy08	Sat Jul 19 2008 09:12 AM
Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew	weatherguy08	Sat Jul 19 2008 10:34 PM
think it looks better tonight/now than for a while	LoisCane	Sun Jul 20 2008 12:12 AM
Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew	Random Chaos	Sat Jul 19 2008 07:34 AM
Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew	cieldumort	Sat Jul 19 2008 02:21 AM
Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean	weatherguy08	Fri Jul 18 2008 10:47 AM
Re: Charleston, SC AM Discussion (Portion)	allan	Fri Jul 18 2008 10:08 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	allan	Wed Jul 16 2008 11:07 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home	rmbjoe1954	Wed Jul 16 2008 11:01 AM

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