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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Cristobal Named off South Carolina Coast
      Sat Jul 19 2008 09:12 AM

11:15PM EDT Update 19 July 2008
Cristobal has not intensified this evening...in fact, the satellite and radar presentations look rather unhealthy with very limited convection restricted to the southeast quadrant in occasional, non-sustaining bursts. The intensity is being held at 40kts.

Tropical Strom Warning has been discontinued from the Little River inlet southward; all other warnings remain in place.

The forecast philosophy has not changed. Environmental conditions appear favorable for at least modest intensification, despite the system not availing of them. Shear is light, outflow is good, and SST are amply warm enough considering Cristobal's proximity to the Gulf Stream. In about 2 days, the steering field will begin taking on more SW to SSW vectors and Cristobal will likely be accelerated northeastward at those time ranges. The intensity forecast is still taking Cristobal to 55kts, but until we see appreciable improvement in the convective process, this may be generous. The average of the track guidance indicates a general northeast progress in route to the westerlies. This should keep the system close to the Carolina coasts, then passing seawards of the upper Mid Atlantic and southern New England areas. Nonetheless, continued monitoring of Cristobal's progress is still warranted.

John (typhoon_tip)

2:15PM EDT Update 19 July 2008
Recent reconnaissance mission has detected a 44kt flight level wind, which extrapolates to 40mph Tropical Cyclone. Cristobal was named as of 2pm.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect from south of Santee River in SC to the NC border with VA, including Pamlico Sound.

Models continue to be rather weak with development expectations, perhaps do to the proximity with land. However, at least for the next 2 days, warm SSTs combined with weak shear, and decent outflow aloft should allow for some gradual strengthening. Cristobal is moving northeast near 7 mph. Steering field, for the time being, remains rather weak. However, in 2-3 days, a trough amplifying in the Great Lakes and eventually northeastern U.S., will strengthen more SW or SSW flow aloft, and this will most like capture the tropical cyclone.

John (typhoon_tip)

********************************************************************
Original Post

Tropical Depression 3 has formed off of the Carolina Coast, a Tropical Storm Warning is up from the Santee River in South Carolina to the North Carolina / Virginia Border.

94L in the Caribbean will continue to be watched.

More to come later...

Event Related Links

Long Term Radar Recording of TD#3 HCWX Level 3 Radar Recording/TD#3

Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville Radar}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne Radar}}
{{radarlink|clx|Charleston, SC Radar}}
{{radarlink|ltx|Wilmington, NC Radar}}
{{radarlink|mhx|Morehead City, NC Radar}}
{{radarlink|akq|Wakefield/ Norfolk/ VA Beach, VA Radar}}

{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Bertha|02|2|2008|1|Bertha}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|4|2008|2|94L}}
{{StormLinks|Cristobal|03|3|2008|4|Cristobal}}

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Cristobal Named off South Carolina Coast MikeCAdministrator Sat Jul 19 2008 09:12 AM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 12:34 PM
. * * Re: 94L craigm   Sun Jul 20 2008 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Texas Definitely In It..check out 5 day cone scottsvb   Sun Jul 20 2008 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Texas Definitely In It..check out 5 day cone Beaumont, TX   Sun Jul 20 2008 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Texas Definitely In It..check out 5 day cone Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 12:07 PM
. * * Texas Definitely In It..check out 5 day cone LoisCane   Sun Jul 20 2008 12:03 PM
. * * Re: 94L Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 12:01 PM
. * * Re: 94L scottsvb   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:55 AM
. * * Re: 94L Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:44 AM
. * * Re: 94L CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:43 AM
. * * Re: 94L WeatherNut   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:41 AM
. * * Re: 94L Texas Cane Tracker   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:39 AM
. * * Re: 94L ftlaudbob   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:29 AM
. * * Re: 94L CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:28 AM
. * * Re: 94L cieldumort   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:15 AM
. * * Re: 94L Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:12 AM
. * * Re: 94L Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:08 AM
. * * Re: 94L Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:04 AM
. * * Re: 94L CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:03 AM
. * * Re: 94L cieldumort   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:03 AM
. * * Re: 94L LoisCane   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:00 AM
. * * Re: 94L Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:58 AM
. * * Re: 94L Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:56 AM
. * * Re: 94L Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:49 AM
. * * Re: 94L Freezey   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Cristobal Named off South Carolina Coast Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Cristobal Named off South Carolina Coast Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:26 AM
. * * Re: 94L craigm   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Cristobal Named off South Carolina Coast cieldumort   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:19 AM
. * * Re: 94L Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 09:37 AM
. * * Re: 94L allan   Sun Jul 20 2008 09:26 AM
. * * Re: 94L LoisCane   Sun Jul 20 2008 09:03 AM
. * * Re: 94L cieldumort   Sun Jul 20 2008 04:05 AM
. * * Re: 94L Storm Hunter   Sun Jul 20 2008 02:43 AM
. * * Re: 94L scottsvb   Sun Jul 20 2008 02:10 AM
. * * 94L danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast typhoon_tip   Sat Jul 19 2008 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast Random Chaos   Sat Jul 19 2008 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast Storm Hunter   Sat Jul 19 2008 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast Brett Addison   Sat Jul 19 2008 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast Random Chaos   Sat Jul 19 2008 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Jul 19 2008 08:40 PM
. * * Using QuikSCAT images cieldumort   Sat Jul 19 2008 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast Random Chaos   Sat Jul 19 2008 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast Storm Hunter   Sat Jul 19 2008 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast MichaelA   Sat Jul 19 2008 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast JoshuaK   Sat Jul 19 2008 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast Storm Hunter   Sat Jul 19 2008 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast Hugh   Sat Jul 19 2008 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast Storm Hunter   Sat Jul 19 2008 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast weatherguy08   Sat Jul 19 2008 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast cieldumort   Sat Jul 19 2008 01:37 PM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Jul 19 2008 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast scottsvb   Sat Jul 19 2008 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast Brett Addison   Sat Jul 19 2008 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast Ed in Va   Sat Jul 19 2008 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast craigm   Sat Jul 19 2008 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast scottsvb   Sat Jul 19 2008 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast DarleneCane   Sat Jul 19 2008 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast metwannabe   Sat Jul 19 2008 09:59 AM

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