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Tonight "the calm before the storm" and time to finish preps. Even now, high precipitable water and instability values ahead of Beryl are triggering flash flood threats with rainfall rates up to over 3"/Hr #Beryl #TXWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 311 (Idalia) , Major: 311 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 311 (Idalia) Major: 311 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#34A 7:00 am EDT
24.9N 94.3W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 995mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
TS Dolly's interaction with the Yucatan?
      Sun Jul 20 2008 10:09 PM

I'm looking at IR and Water Vapor and came up with a question about Dolly's future.

Normally storms weaken when they pass overland. However, normally storms have their convective regions and eye structure disrupted, thus why they weaken. Looking at Dolly, her main convective zone is in her NE quadrant with almost nothing in the SW quadrant, that which will pass overland. Also, per recon, there was no eye structure detected yet.

So, the question is: how much will Dolly be weakened if she manages to pass her core over the tip of the Yucatan, but keeps her main convection zone out to sea? Specifically, what kind of disruption would we expect to see, and how quickly could she recover from it once in the Gulf?

(hope this is the right forum; it's a current storm, but it's also a question)

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