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LDH892
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 13
Loc: Carolinas
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical
      Mon Jul 21 2008 03:42 AM

I agree with the posts about the recent track of Dolly, being more north-northwestward than pure northwestward, and the fact that NHC didn't modify their 11pm forecast for the difference in initial position. It appears from the IR loop that Dolly is at ~20.5N, 85W, off a bit from the 11pm initial coordinates of 19.6N, 85.8N. Franklin did state that... "IF A CENTER REFORMS TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION"... the intensity forecast could be off if Dolly misses the Yucatan, so the hurricane specialist have noticed the recent change in motion/change in location of the low-level circulation center. As we all see, forcing consistency between forecasts sometimes produces errors. Observations should trump model output, but when the observed phenomenon is also highly erratic, errors are bound to occur. If Dolly continues to strengthen the next several model runs will become more realistic as they get a better handle on what Dolly is up to. Those interests in TX should keep a close eye on Ms. Dolly.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS Dolly Over Cancun, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Jul 21 2008 03:42 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement Hugh   Mon Jul 21 2008 10:51 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 06:39 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 21 2008 06:33 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement scottsvb   Mon Jul 21 2008 06:30 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement ftlaudbob   Mon Jul 21 2008 06:22 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement Beaumont, TX   Mon Jul 21 2008 06:20 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 06:16 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 06:11 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 21 2008 06:04 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 05:45 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement scottsvb   Mon Jul 21 2008 05:03 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 21 2008 05:01 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 04:40 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical scottsvb   Mon Jul 21 2008 04:36 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 04:29 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 21 2008 04:22 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 21 2008 04:20 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 03:52 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical metwannabe   Mon Jul 21 2008 03:42 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical LDH892   Mon Jul 21 2008 03:42 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Hugh   Mon Jul 21 2008 03:16 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical LoisCane   Mon Jul 21 2008 03:12 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 21 2008 03:08 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Mon Jul 21 2008 03:03 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 21 2008 03:00 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical LoisCane   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:58 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Hugh   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:50 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical weathernet   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:48 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical LoisCane   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:46 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Beaumont, TX   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:44 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:43 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Freezey   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:43 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Hugh   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:42 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:38 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:28 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical weathernet   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:23 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:21 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical weatherguy08   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:20 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Hugh   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:17 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:14 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical weathernet   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:13 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Hugh   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:11 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical weathernet   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:06 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Brett Addison   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:05 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical craigm   Mon Jul 21 2008 01:48 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 21 2008 01:41 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical LoisCane   Mon Jul 21 2008 01:31 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical okihabu   Mon Jul 21 2008 01:19 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical craigm   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:52 PM
. * * Re: 200mb Level Winds near Dolly LoisCane   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:45 PM
. * * 200mb Level Winds near Dolly danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:06 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Storm Hunter   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:46 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:21 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical WeatherNut   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:21 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:15 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:05 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical metwannabe   Sun Jul 20 2008 09:56 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical ftlaudbob   Sun Jul 20 2008 09:55 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical WeatherNut   Sun Jul 20 2008 09:35 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Storm Hunter   Sun Jul 20 2008 07:32 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 06:50 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 06:45 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 06:31 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 20 2008 05:57 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical cieldumort   Sun Jul 20 2008 05:45 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Jul 20 2008 05:41 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical weatherguy08   Sun Jul 20 2008 05:23 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 20 2008 04:57 PM
. * * Dolly danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 04:51 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 20 2008 04:43 PM

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