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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 298 (Idalia) , Major: 298 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 298 (Idalia) Major: 298 (Idalia)
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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: NHC Storm Movement
      Mon Jul 21 2008 02:33 AM

I hate to add to the mix of bad news but the Model Discussion is out. Here are the Dolly related excerpts.
Full text at: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
114 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

VALID JUL 21/0000 UTC THRU JUL 24/1200 UTC
...T.S. DOLLY...

AVAILABLE SFC DATA SUGGESTS THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE IS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION... LOWEST SFC PRESSURES ARE LOWER THAN DEPICTED
IN THE GFS ANALYSIS.

MODEL TRENDS...
...T.S. DOLLY...

THE 00Z NAM TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE 18Z RUN BUT THERE IS A
PRONOUNCED NWD TREND OVER THE PAST 12-24 HRS. THE 00Z NAM IS MUCH
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ESPECIALLY IN THE PAST 12 HRS THE
GFS HAS TRENDED NWD WITH DOLLY THRU F36 EARLY TUE. AFTER THAT
TIME TRENDS DIMINISH TO THE POINT THAT GFS RUNS CONVERGE ALONG THE
WRN GULF COAST BY F60 EARLY WED... AND THEN THE 00Z GFS TRENDS A
LITTLE SWD OF MOST PREVIOUS RUNS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
...T.S. DOLLY...

THE GFS/NAM SHOW SIMILAR HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM THRU F24 LATE MON.
AFTER THAT TIME THE NAM TRENDS STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND
EVENTUALLY FARTHER NWD AS WELL. ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WRN
GULF COAST THE NAM MAINTAINS A NWWD MOTION WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM OVER THE COAST. THE NAM TRACK IS ON THE NRN EDGE OF 18Z
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BUT FITS MORE COMFORTABLY WITHIN THE SPREAD
OF 21Z SREF MEMBERS. THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL/12Z ECMWF ARE S OF
THE NAM TRACK TO VARYING DEGREES BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES
THE WRN GULF COAST. CONSULT LATEST TPC ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS
FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING T.S. DOLLY.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TS Dolly Over Cancun, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Jul 21 2008 02:33 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement Hugh   Mon Jul 21 2008 06:51 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:39 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:33 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement scottsvb   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:30 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement ftlaudbob   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:22 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement Beaumont, TX   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:20 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:16 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:11 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 21 2008 02:04 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 01:45 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement scottsvb   Mon Jul 21 2008 01:03 AM
. * * Re: NHC Storm Movement MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 21 2008 01:01 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 12:40 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical scottsvb   Mon Jul 21 2008 12:36 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 21 2008 12:29 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 21 2008 12:22 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 21 2008 12:20 AM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Storm Hunter   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:52 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical metwannabe   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:42 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical LDH892   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:42 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:16 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:12 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:08 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:03 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 11:00 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:58 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:50 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical weathernet   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:48 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:46 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Beaumont, TX   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:44 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:43 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Freezey   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:43 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:42 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:38 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:28 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical weathernet   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:23 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:21 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical weatherguy08   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:20 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:17 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:14 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical weathernet   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:13 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:11 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical weathernet   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:06 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Brett Addison   Sun Jul 20 2008 10:05 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical craigm   Sun Jul 20 2008 09:48 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 09:41 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical LoisCane   Sun Jul 20 2008 09:31 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical okihabu   Sun Jul 20 2008 09:19 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical craigm   Sun Jul 20 2008 07:52 PM
. * * Re: 200mb Level Winds near Dolly LoisCane   Sun Jul 20 2008 07:45 PM
. * * 200mb Level Winds near Dolly danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 07:06 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Storm Hunter   Sun Jul 20 2008 06:46 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 06:21 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical WeatherNut   Sun Jul 20 2008 06:21 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 06:15 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 06:05 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical metwannabe   Sun Jul 20 2008 05:56 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical ftlaudbob   Sun Jul 20 2008 05:55 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical WeatherNut   Sun Jul 20 2008 05:35 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Storm Hunter   Sun Jul 20 2008 03:32 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 02:50 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Hugh   Sun Jul 20 2008 02:45 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical Random Chaos   Sun Jul 20 2008 02:31 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 20 2008 01:57 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical cieldumort   Sun Jul 20 2008 01:45 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical scottsvb   Sun Jul 20 2008 01:41 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical weatherguy08   Sun Jul 20 2008 01:23 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 20 2008 12:57 PM
. * * Dolly danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 20 2008 12:51 PM
. * * Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 20 2008 12:43 PM

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