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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

danielw
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)

Re: NHC Storm Movement
Mon Jul 21 2008 02:33 AM

I hate to add to the mix of bad news but the Model Discussion is out. Here are the Dolly related excerpts.
Full text at: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
114 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

VALID JUL 21/0000 UTC THRU JUL 24/1200 UTC
...T.S. DOLLY...

AVAILABLE SFC DATA SUGGESTS THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE IS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION... LOWEST SFC PRESSURES ARE LOWER THAN DEPICTED
IN THE GFS ANALYSIS.

MODEL TRENDS...
...T.S. DOLLY...

THE 00Z NAM TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE 18Z RUN BUT THERE IS A
PRONOUNCED NWD TREND OVER THE PAST 12-24 HRS. THE 00Z NAM IS MUCH
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ESPECIALLY IN THE PAST 12 HRS THE
GFS HAS TRENDED NWD WITH DOLLY THRU F36 EARLY TUE. AFTER THAT
TIME TRENDS DIMINISH TO THE POINT THAT GFS RUNS CONVERGE ALONG THE
WRN GULF COAST BY F60 EARLY WED... AND THEN THE 00Z GFS TRENDS A
LITTLE SWD OF MOST PREVIOUS RUNS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
...T.S. DOLLY...

THE GFS/NAM SHOW SIMILAR HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM THRU F24 LATE MON.
AFTER THAT TIME THE NAM TRENDS STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND
EVENTUALLY FARTHER NWD AS WELL. ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WRN
GULF COAST THE NAM MAINTAINS A NWWD MOTION WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM OVER THE COAST. THE NAM TRACK IS ON THE NRN EDGE OF 18Z
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BUT FITS MORE COMFORTABLY WITHIN THE SPREAD
OF 21Z SREF MEMBERS. THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL/12Z ECMWF ARE S OF
THE NAM TRACK TO VARYING DEGREES BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES
THE WRN GULF COAST. CONSULT LATEST TPC ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS
FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING T.S. DOLLY.

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Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
TS Dolly Over Cancun, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Ed Dunham	Mon Jul 21 2008 02:33 AM
Re: NHC Storm Movement	Hugh	Mon Jul 21 2008 06:51 AM
Re: NHC Storm Movement	Storm Hunter	Mon Jul 21 2008 02:39 AM
Re: NHC Storm Movement	danielw	Mon Jul 21 2008 02:33 AM
Re: NHC Storm Movement	scottsvb	Mon Jul 21 2008 02:30 AM
Re: NHC Storm Movement	ftlaudbob	Mon Jul 21 2008 02:22 AM
Re: NHC Storm Movement	Beaumont, TX	Mon Jul 21 2008 02:20 AM
Re: NHC Storm Movement	Storm Hunter	Mon Jul 21 2008 02:16 AM
Re: NHC Storm Movement	Storm Hunter	Mon Jul 21 2008 02:11 AM
Re: NHC Storm Movement	danielw	Mon Jul 21 2008 02:04 AM
Re: NHC Storm Movement	Storm Hunter	Mon Jul 21 2008 01:45 AM
Re: NHC Storm Movement	scottsvb	Mon Jul 21 2008 01:03 AM
Re: NHC Storm Movement	MikeC	Mon Jul 21 2008 01:01 AM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Storm Hunter	Mon Jul 21 2008 12:40 AM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	scottsvb	Mon Jul 21 2008 12:36 AM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Storm Hunter	Mon Jul 21 2008 12:29 AM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	typhoon_tip	Mon Jul 21 2008 12:22 AM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	typhoon_tip	Mon Jul 21 2008 12:20 AM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Storm Hunter	Sun Jul 20 2008 11:52 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	metwannabe	Sun Jul 20 2008 11:42 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	LDH892	Sun Jul 20 2008 11:42 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Hugh	Sun Jul 20 2008 11:16 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	LoisCane	Sun Jul 20 2008 11:12 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Ed Dunham	Sun Jul 20 2008 11:08 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 20 2008 11:03 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Ed Dunham	Sun Jul 20 2008 11:00 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	LoisCane	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:58 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Hugh	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:50 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	weathernet	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:48 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	LoisCane	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:46 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Beaumont, TX	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:44 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:43 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Freezey	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:43 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Hugh	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:42 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Ed Dunham	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:38 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:28 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	weathernet	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:23 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:21 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	weatherguy08	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:20 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Hugh	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:17 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:14 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	weathernet	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:13 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Hugh	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:11 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	weathernet	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:06 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Brett Addison	Sun Jul 20 2008 10:05 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	craigm	Sun Jul 20 2008 09:48 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Ed Dunham	Sun Jul 20 2008 09:41 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	LoisCane	Sun Jul 20 2008 09:31 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	okihabu	Sun Jul 20 2008 09:19 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	craigm	Sun Jul 20 2008 07:52 PM
Re: 200mb Level Winds near Dolly	LoisCane	Sun Jul 20 2008 07:45 PM
200mb Level Winds near Dolly	danielw	Sun Jul 20 2008 07:06 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Storm Hunter	Sun Jul 20 2008 06:46 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 20 2008 06:21 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	WeatherNut	Sun Jul 20 2008 06:21 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	MikeC	Sun Jul 20 2008 06:15 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	MikeC	Sun Jul 20 2008 06:05 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	metwannabe	Sun Jul 20 2008 05:56 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	ftlaudbob	Sun Jul 20 2008 05:55 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	WeatherNut	Sun Jul 20 2008 05:35 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Storm Hunter	Sun Jul 20 2008 03:32 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 20 2008 02:50 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Hugh	Sun Jul 20 2008 02:45 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	Random Chaos	Sun Jul 20 2008 02:31 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	typhoon_tip	Sun Jul 20 2008 01:57 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	cieldumort	Sun Jul 20 2008 01:45 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	scottsvb	Sun Jul 20 2008 01:41 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	weatherguy08	Sun Jul 20 2008 01:23 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	typhoon_tip	Sun Jul 20 2008 12:57 PM
Dolly	danielw	Sun Jul 20 2008 12:51 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical	typhoon_tip	Sun Jul 20 2008 12:43 PM

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