cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Cristobal Out to Sea, Dolly in Gulf, Questions
Mon Jul 21 2008 10:58 AM
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A rough extrapolation of this fix suggests that indeed Dolly has hooked to a WNW course, once leaving the tip of the Yucatan, and having previously been on a NW course (smoothed out and accounting for center jumps). Extending this motion all the way out to landfall, extreme south Texas/ extreme NE Mexico does still appear to be the target... but only if one draws a pretty strait line, and Dolly then follows marching orders to the letter.
A strengthening Dolly might now be in order, but her continued on again off again connection to the surface, and rather oblong, loopy convective appearance on satellite, suggests s l o w strengthening, if any, in the near term. Even with some gradual improvement today, I do not perceive any reason to suspect much in the way of any possible deviation from the currently expected WNW track, baring any more center reformations, for the remainder of today.
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