Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

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There is no "EYE" in dolly right now....we dont need to over hypecast the nowcasting of this system. Its just a center of circulation and not a "EYE". There was no pressure also of 985mb... latest has it at 999mb or a 50-60mph storm.. Still conditions are perfect for further strengthning tonight into tomorrow. I do feel though even though Dolly will slow some.. she will make landfall earlier than expected tomorrow night as a Cat 1 or maybe weak 2 in extreme NE MX but Brownsville will deal with near hurricane force winds as forecasted by the NHC.

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There is no eye just yet. The NHC is finally admitting that east shear has been impacting the system, after stating all day that anticyclonic upper levels covered the entire western Gulf area.

That said, there is an apparent tendency to wrap convection squarely around a central core. The low level center, however, is stated to be south of the mid level vortex. This is consistent with an earlier post I made regarding an apparent tilted system. The TUTT is the culprit. Even at this hour, that feature still lingers in the southern BOC. From the Yuk Pen areas and proceeding to the "core" there is still the presence of shear, though it is decreasing.

The most recent frames suggest a somewhat more NW motion with the IR...thus mid-level. It seems more likely to me that rapid intensification is still iffy. The storm is crossing some impressive oceanic thermal content, and a battle between TC thermodynamics and negative mechanics is underway. Tough call. Could have a big deepening system if the shear were to relax entirely, but the existence of shear is off-setting to some degree.

I'm more concerned about a slow down, where by the system develops strongly ...over guidance, within reach of shores. Monitoring of this system from the middle TX Bend down into Mexico, obviously highly warranted.

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