cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Dolly Strengthening.. Hurricane Warnings Up in Texas Brownsville to Port O'Connor
Tue Jul 22 2008 10:04 AM
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"Hurricane Dolly" looks to be a lock, but several things are arguing against Dolly being able to enter a period of very rapid intensification.. especially as that would pertain to RI to beyond Cat 2.. without a lot of luck.
After the overnight easing from the gnawing jaws of the TUTT (ULL) to Dolly's southwest, it appears that some shearing has begun again. This is perhaps the number one reason why Dolly has been unable to establish much of an eye, despite repeated attempts.
Unless the TUTT pulls away at a more rapid pace than this, which at this time looks possible, but less and less so, it's going to be all up to the forward speed of Dolly as to whether or not this situation continues to inhibit her development going forward.
Something of a blocking pattern is in place from the east pac running up through old Mexico and onward into Texas, which is in status quo with a mid-upper level trof over west Texas, and a mid-level ridge in the east. Right now, unless some part of this train wreck gives way, Dolly may soon also start taking on more shear from her west. (A little bit of westerly shear has been an on again, off again presence for the last 24 hours or so, but has usually been masked by the outflow wrapping around from there).
SSTs are not going to ramp up in any meaningful way along her expected course. In fact, with Dolly now at about 24N 94W, she'll be traveling over a negative anomaly, or cool eddy. From there, TCHP still does not increase much, at all. While the depth of the 26C water is plenty deep for a passing Cat 3 hurricane traveling fast, Dolly is still expected to slow down, and the upwelling that would likely occur from a slow-moving Cat 1-2 hurricane over 26C water of these depths tends to preclude rapid development much beyond Cat 2 (Not applicable if Dolly does not slow down so much).
Finally, there's simply only so much water left. That coastline is coming up mighty fast, and then it's curtains.
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