cieldumort
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Posts: 2322
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Area of Interest - Far Eastern Atlantic
Fri Jul 25 2008 12:04 PM
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97L was dropped from greenball status on NRL's site, but they are still carrying the old info if you click on "All." It would not be surprising to see them greenball it later today should the current convective trends continue, and at that time the last 18 hours or so of data void would probably be brought at least somewhat current.
Shear over this feature appears to be running below 25 knots, which, in and of itself is not always prohibitive. However, 97L is also traveling through a region of very dry air, and so the shear keeps making it possible for the dry air to attempt to box it up in an early coffin. On the other side of the shear coin, the wave does seem to be experiencing some convective flare-ups, no doubt in part thanks to some of those winds. Ironically, this might help to start wrapping 97 up in a protective, moist shield, where it could start developing a little. It looks to be attempting to do so this morning.
The new wave off Africa interests me a good deal, as it is low enough that should it survive until about 35W, it could remain well south of the drier air and stronger shear that has been plaguing 97. Low-enough also that, should it develop into something, the odds of it re-curving before plowing into land somewhere might be pretty low.
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