cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: GOM
Mon Jul 28 2008 04:20 PM
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This area of disturbed weather in the north-central GOM did get highlighted in the 2PM TWO:
Quote:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
I don't know.. I really have to say, while movement of the parent trough overall might be extending northwestward with time, the MLC, which seems to be holding its own very well for having been born from an MCS, looks to be drifting more west-southwestward, and dragging most of the umph of the associated surface trough along with it.
Typically, MCS-to-TC genesis is one of the less frequent ways depressions form in the Atlantic basin, as a whole, but is climatologically somewhat more possible in the Gulf. And in addition to that historical backdrop, this MCS is riding a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, or along the remains of a decaying front.
Here's where I want to say, "But wait! That's not all!" The disturbance also has a favorably weak ULL positioned just to its west, and such that there is also some divergence going on, but without imparting especially high shear. If anything, shear has been relaxing over this area throughout the day.
While NHC has highlighted the feature with its yellow code ("LOW" probability of formation within 48 hours), I might venture a guess that it is on the high side of their "LOW" probability, and, especially given how close it is to land, should certainly be monitored closely for any signs of further development.
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