cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Wave Watching
Tue Jul 29 2008 10:56 AM
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Situation with the NGOM feature this morning doesn't offer much excitement. Late last night, convection went out like a candle, but started flaring back up by 3 or 4am CDT, and now, once again, has grown back into a respectable MCS. However, unlike yesterday, the surface trough has become less well-defined. Cloud motions in the lowest levels almost all head generally northward, with only a slight bend noted, where just yesterday there existed definitive cyclonic flow near and at even at the surface. Area surface pressures are not falling and winds are generally light.
Of note, a low to mid-level swirl, probably the remnant vorticity signature from Monday's blow-up, is located near 27N 89W this morning. Over the last few visible frames it appears to be tucking under some of the deeper offshore convection... there remains a slight chance, however slim, that this could make some connection with the surface that actually sticks, later today.
Almost all forecasts are now calling for the disturbance to move northwestward to northward, bringing rains and thunderstorms to much of Louisiana, and perhaps then looping back to the northeast to east, enhancing the precipitation over the southeast and/or Florida.
The tropical waves that have been rolling off Africa and make it beyond the cooler SSTs of the eastern Atlantic the past several days have been choking on some very dry air/SAL and just hang on for dear life - if not bite the dust - even the most impressive of them.
This latest wave centered near 11.5N 17W looks to have some good vorticity in the mid-levels, and is not yet plagued by SAL.
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