cieldumort
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Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Wave Watching
Wed Jul 30 2008 07:19 AM
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It's pretty clear tonight that 98L has been developing at a good clip, so far
- and to no surprise, already yanking northbound.
Lacking any ship or buoy reports, the nearest stations are land-based. Pressures a good bit easterly of 98's coc have already been down to 1007mb, with sustained winds from the southwest, south, southeast, east-southeast and southeast in a range of 10-25mph... (Inland, and a jump east of the center.)
Combined with the latest Dvorak estimates, it's easy to argue that an upgrade could be on the way this morning, should convection stay healthy. Here are the latest from SAB, which some may think the most recent two look a little conservative:
30/0600 UTC 14.4N 18.8W T1.5/1.5 98L -- Atlantic Ocean
30/0000 UTC 13.4N 17.6W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic Ocean
30/0000 UTC 13.4N 17.6W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean
29/1730 UTC 12.2N 16.9W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean
29/1200 UTC 11.3N 16.6W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean
98L has been on a solid NNW course -
to be expected of a more developed feature.
Early model support for 98L is almost flat. So far, they all are starting with a weaker feature than has existed. Thinking a few more microwave passes, and hopefully a solid scat or two, everything else being equal, especially convective-wise, daylight may very well seal the deal for NHC, and perhaps then we should be able to start getting some model runs on it worth considering. Given the rapid ramp-up and NNWD track so far, it might be only one for the CVs to worry about. Regardless, lots and lots of blue between there and over here...
Waiting for daylight...
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