cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Wave Watching
Wed Jul 30 2008 09:51 PM
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Looks like some routine summer flareups, helped along by some old boundaries, upper-level lows, and passing waves, are keeping on and off convection going in the Caribbean.
That area does start to bubble quite a bit during the peak.
So many little impulses between the CONUS and Africa all of a sudden. Upper-level winds aren't yet all that supportive of just about any of them, but just looking at the volume of convective clusters and waves, I think I'll keep a casual eye on the entire Atlantic basin for the next few days. It is almost August, and we have seen a really perky July, as it is, after all.
98L got its act together quicker than model runs could catch up, and has curved so far north, so fast, that it is now over waters even cooler than 24C. For a fledgling cyclone, this is usually an insurmountable challenge, and so to no surprise, just about all of the deep convection is now gone. In this injured state, it could tend to start drifting along on a more westerly course until it encounters a new patch of favorable SSTs and upper-level winds. More probably, it will go the way of the do-- 97L.. but, I'm not willing to write it off completely just yet, given what it did in its first 24 hours offshore.
Next batter up is coming off roughly just north of 10 or 11, and also looking pretty good. If this one doesn't ramp up right out the gate, it might stay just low enough to slowly and steadily work its way to become something more.
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