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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Idalia) , Major: 274 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 274 (Idalia) Major: 274 (Idalia)
 


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90L Forms S.W. of Cape Verde Islands
      Sat Aug 02 2008 02:09 PM

As of this morning, 90L has now been officially classified. Looks to be in a far better environment than its northerly sister, 99L. As of 12Z this morning the initial classification puts 90L at 11.5N and 27.7W. Movement towards the West and pressure initialized at 1009mb

The early statistical forecast is rather "bullish", with the 24 hour SHIPS model bringing winds right up to tropical storm strength ( 34knots - approx. 40mph. ) and the 24 hour BAMD takes it too 11.5N and 36.3W. Going way out there, the 120hr. forecast naturally has some spread in their respective tracks, with the deep layer BAM at 14.8N and 69.1W, with the shallow layer BAM much farther north around 24N. SHIPS intensity model at 120hr brings 90L up to a hurricane, at 69 Knots. Of course its way early on this one yet, but given the light shear and warmer SST's ahead, along with what the early signs of this season have already shown, i'd probably bet the .75 cents in my left pocket on development here.

Longer term? Geez, I think I need some coffee before I look at that much data this Sat. morn. Anyway, better to see if 90L persists through the day, just to see if later model data has a chance to even know its there.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* 90L Forms S.W. of Cape Verde Islands weathernet Sat Aug 02 2008 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Wave Watching Watching Weather   Sat Aug 02 2008 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Wave Watching WeatherNut   Sat Aug 02 2008 07:57 PM
. * * Re: 90L Forms S.W. of Cape Verde Islands tommy   Sat Aug 02 2008 07:20 PM
. * * Re: 90L Forms S.W. of Cape Verde Islands weathernet   Sun Aug 03 2008 05:31 AM

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