Area of Concern - TD 6 - FLHurricane.com

Satellite images suggest that the system is already a Tropical Depression. NRL notes 30kts and a pressure of 1009mb. Pressure is probably a bit lower. At 19/18Z the center of the formative TD was at 12.3N 43.5W with movement to the west or perhaps slightly north of due west at 10kts. Structure is excellent with banding features and good outflow to the southeast. Outflow is somewhat restricted to the west - probable cause is a narrow band of weak southerly shear. System is likely to reach tropical storm strength on Sunday. Position and strength of the Atlantic ridge suggest a west northwest movement for the next few days. Erika should reach hurricane strength prior to her passage through the north central Caribbean islands on Tuesday (at least that seems like the projected track based on forecasted conditions). A continued west northwest movement through the Caribbean Sea is likely on Wednesday and Thursday - at that time, southerly shear may cause some weakening. A significant cold front (for this time of year) is expected to push toward the southeastern states late next week and Erika could begin a more northwesterly course under the influence of the front on Friday (still too early to tell).

It is interesting to look back in history at the storms which have developed or moved through the current location of the system. Names like Hugo, Bertha, Andrew, Frederick, Cleo, Donna and David would be on that list. Most of the storms that have passed through this area when they were developing have eventually reached hurricane strength and many of them have had an impact on the United States. Monitor this one closely during the week - it could become a significant system.
ED

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