cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2321
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Forms in Gulf of Mexico Tropical Storm Warnings up in Louisiana
Mon Aug 04 2008 05:47 PM
|
|
|
Edouard is undergoing a bit of a metamorphosis this afternoon. As the cyclone continues to improve structurally, its windfield is also expanding, bringing tropical storm force winds to a much wider area. Outflow continues to improve, such that the cyclone is now breathing easier, even a little bit now in the northwest quad. The entire gulf is its oyster, as low level inflow continues to inject warm, moist air into the system. This inflow is doing battle royale against repeated partial dry air intrusions wrapping in from the north and northwest.
Given the ongoing trend of improving structure and deepening pressure, it continues to be entirely reasonable to assume that Edouard may very well make landfall as a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane. As the most recent discussion out of NHC points out, there is very little practical difference between the two. Conditions would be very challenging along and near wherever the center makes landfall.. and perhaps a good bit inland, should the cyclone progress at a fast-enough clip. It is always wise to keep in mind that intensity is the most difficult, and often the most erroneous, part of a tropical cyclone forecast.
As for track, Edouard continues to travel a little bit left of many best guesses for today, but is still widely expected to begin a turn more decidedly to the west-northwest, and in fact, now more models are calling for an ever greater hook to the right in response to a passing trof to its north. Along this forecast track, much more of north central Texas may experience numerous showers and possibly some heavier rain squalls with gusty winds.
It is almost a once in generation event for a tropical cyclone to produce sizable swaths of wind damage more than a 100 miles or so inland from the Texas coast, and this is certainly not the main concern with Edouard. Of some concern could be flooding, provided the cyclone slows down, stalls out or just dumps out... but, given that it might try to hitch a faster ride on the coattails of the passing trof, that does not look to be the most probable outcome, at this time.. although, this is truly subject to change.. especially considering how it is still trending a bit more due west than called for.
Brief inland tornadoes are always a threat in Texas from landfalling tropical cyclones, and this threat will likely persist along and to the right of the center of circulation well-inland, and through at least mid-week. Damaging wind gusts produced from downdrafts within some of the stronger supercells may also occur, even long after landfall.
|
|
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Edit
Reply
Quote
