cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Tropical Storm Edouard Makes Landfall on Upper Texas Coast
Tue Aug 05 2008 07:00 PM
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Inland and winding down. Eduard now goes from a slight risk of wind damage and of tornadoes threat, to increasingly mostly a flood threat. So far today, several inches have fallen in and around the upper Texas coast, including much of the Houston area, and the system is slowly progressing inland.
Edouard has been losing a lot of his deep convection due to all of the hot, dry air that has owned this state, literally choking the cyclone. In this weakening state, it appears the cyclone may actually begin getting pulled into the left side of the cone of uncertainty, in response to the better convection that is closest to and over the water. Eventually, perhaps even many parts of I35 in central Texas will receive at least a couple of tenths of an inch or more.
What becomes a bit more of a challenge to forecasters, and perhaps ultimately emergency managers as well, is how the decay of Edouard plays out. What Texas desperately needs right now is just a really good dousing, just up to the line, and without any of the floods we are often notorious for.
If Edouard unravels and its remnant moisture and vorticity are swept up and away from any number of possible nearby short and longwaves, c'est la vie... If, on the other hand, it slows down and is not ripped apart or dried out, there might even be some pretty hefty nocturnal core rains in addition to daytime activity, over the next few - especially if the remnants somehow stall and spin out over the same general area. That type of set up causes very big headaches around here. Ideally, Texas ends up with something right in the middle of those two extreme possibilities.
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