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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC

Wait for it...
Sat Aug 09 2008 05:15 AM

Notice how around Dolly time the Atlantic got that sort of drugged look (aside from Edouard squeezing in) it gets when MJO flips to positive? It never works out perfectly, but you can see that MJO negative wave advancing... just look at how the western Pacific flipped on a week or so ago, and now the central and eastern Pacific have a pretty solid line of storms and invests. Hernan went off the other day, so in seven to ten after you can expect the Atlantic to have an answer. My guess is that things will flip back on all at once later this week--maybe a line of activity will develop. Latest GFS runs keep trending in that direction. Some of the other models are also showing those subtle signs that they also see approaching activity.
Slightly unnerving side note is that it has also been the tendency (although by no means a sure thing) that the longwave pattern will start to reconfigure into one of those where a big wheelhouse ridge starts powering its way into position in the western Atlantic. Euro has a less emphatic version of this but also seems interested in pushing the ridge westward to where any storm would have a hard time sneaking out to sea without rattling some nerves. With the MJO pulse almost here I'm betting on late August giving us some of that. In a year where most of the season predictions are almost emptying the name list, you've got to think that's going to happen some anyway. The first half of this decade featured a few active years where that somehow never worked out--but that's more the exception than the norm when you finish M or later on the list.
I'll try not to be such a stranger on the site... life hasn't slowed down much for a while.
HF 0915z09august

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Not Much in the Tropics Today	MikeC	Sat Aug 09 2008 05:15 AM
Re: Wait for it...	Storm Hunter	Sun Aug 10 2008 01:46 AM
Re: Wait for it...	craigm	Sat Aug 09 2008 01:07 PM
Re: Wait for it...	metwannabe	Sat Aug 09 2008 11:17 AM
Wait for it...	HanKFranK	Sat Aug 09 2008 05:15 AM
Re: Not Much in the Tropics Today	Robert	Fri Aug 08 2008 02:54 PM
Re: Quiet Out There	Storm Surfer	Fri Aug 08 2008 12:58 PM
Quiet Out There	mikethewreck	Fri Aug 08 2008 12:25 PM
Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas	LoisCane	Thu Aug 07 2008 08:41 PM
Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas	M.A.	Thu Aug 07 2008 09:42 AM
Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas	LoisCane	Wed Aug 06 2008 10:02 PM
Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas	craigm	Wed Aug 06 2008 06:13 PM
Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas	kpost	Wed Aug 06 2008 04:50 PM
Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas	Patrick99	Wed Aug 06 2008 03:53 PM
Re: Watching Wave East of the Bahamas	Lee-Delray	Wed Aug 06 2008 02:43 PM

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