HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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Say hey Fay (time to play)
Sun Aug 10 2008 01:20 PM
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Odds pretty good that 92L is going to be Fay.. maybe late tomorrow or Tuesday. The Pacific-Atlantic response seems to be wasting no time. Tip just covered all of the gory details of the (spectacularly) bad omens in the tea leaves . All I'll add is what my take is on the current invest, the one in the on deck circle, and/or the guy in the hole.
92L--reckoning best bet of a Monday depression, Tuesday storm. System is sprawling and not totally detached from the active section of itcz.. should consolidate slowly at first. Maybe a good burst of intensification on Wednesday, but the u/a environment (read, TUTT) looks like a rusty old barbed wire fence up ahead. System gets to the Lesser Antilles Thursday, probably as a mid/high-grade tropical storm, and probably has a close encounter with the larger islands after that. I'm maybe eighty percent on it developing, fifty percent on it surviving past this point. In spite of the hugh upper trough over the east, a fairly strong western extension of the ridge from the Bahamas east should hold it down from recurvature. If I had to make a long range bet on where it ends up... Gulf of Mexico, week after the one we're starting. At that point the trough over the east is fragmenting and filling, and ridging is nosing into the western Atlantic, so it's hard to say exactly what environment it is in or what is driving it.
Next guy/Last guy--I don' t know exactly how the system will emerge or what it will look like exactly. If I had to bet on the second area the NHC has highlighted, would guess that it's almost part of a monsoon trough feature on the ITCZ, and that the larger wave to the east will overtake it. Regardless something should consolidate out of that area, and develop like one of those huge-sprawling, slow-revving systems. I'd expect this one to be a large, long-track hurricane. Should track more to the north, but still come grazing the Lesser Antilles around the start of the following week... and have a huge, swelling ridge to the north. It isn't set in stone yet, but there's a good probability that cut-off troughiness in the Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley, with u/a ridging consolidating over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, could drive this system into the East Coast late that week. Mind, I'm talking about just beyond ten days from now... this is speculative and will require a couple days more of model runs to really take seriously.
In the shorter term, something that will affect the timing is whether this feature comes out of the feature or the wave further east. The tropical Atlantic is crowded with the waves stacked close together. Expect some interaction/destructive interference if more than one system tries to develop. Also expect the stronger waves that emerge to also try to develop. We should have at least 3, maybe as many as five or six more storms develop before August is out.
HF 1720z10august
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