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#Beryl now a Hurricane with 75mph. Now Forecast to be a 120mph Major Hurricane near the Windwards on Monday. Hurricane Warnings now up for Barbados, Watches for other areas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 304 (Idalia) , Major: 304 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia) Major: 304 (Idalia)
10.1N 49.3W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 992mb
Moving:
W at 22 mph
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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Mike V
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Say hey Fay (time to play)
      Sun Aug 10 2008 02:29 PM

Quote:


Next guy/Last guy--I don' t know exactly how the system will emerge or what it will look like exactly. If I had to bet on the second area the NHC has highlighted, would guess that it's almost part of a monsoon trough feature on the ITCZ, and that the larger wave to the east will overtake it. Regardless something should consolidate out of that area, and develop like one of those huge-sprawling, slow-revving systems. I'd expect this one to be a large, long-track hurricane. Should track more to the north, but still come grazing the Lesser Antilles around the start of the following week... and have a huge, swelling ridge to the north. It isn't set in stone yet, but there's a good probability that cut-off troughiness in the Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley, with u/a ridging consolidating over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, could drive this system into the East Coast late that week. Mind, I'm talking about just beyond ten days from now... this is speculative and will require a couple days more of model runs to really take seriously.




sorry to quote the entire thing, but looking at the GFS run, it bears this scenario out exactly.

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma, Ian flood adventure.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ramp Up in Activity MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 10 2008 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity scottsvb   Mon Aug 11 2008 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity cieldumort   Mon Aug 11 2008 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity LoisCane   Mon Aug 11 2008 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 10 2008 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity spinup   Sun Aug 10 2008 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 10 2008 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 10 2008 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) cieldumort   Sun Aug 10 2008 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) craigm   Sun Aug 10 2008 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) Hugh   Sun Aug 10 2008 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) ltpat228   Sun Aug 10 2008 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) rmbjoe1954   Sun Aug 10 2008 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 10 2008 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) Mike V   Sun Aug 10 2008 02:29 PM
. * * Say hey Fay (time to play) HanKFranK   Sun Aug 10 2008 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 10 2008 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity craigm   Sun Aug 10 2008 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 10 2008 12:18 PM

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