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#Beryl now a Hurricane with 75mph. Now Forecast to be a 120mph Major Hurricane near the Windwards on Monday. Hurricane Warnings now up for Barbados, Watches for other areas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 304 (Idalia) , Major: 304 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia) Major: 304 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#5 10:00 pm EDT
10.1N 49.3W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 992mb
Moving:
W at 22 mph
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: Say hey Fay (time to play)
      Sun Aug 10 2008 02:47 PM

Quote:



sorry to quote the entire thing, but looking at the GFS run, it bears this scenario out exactly.



The 12z Canadian model is very ominous for Florida and much of the SE Coast! By D6, it has the appearance of a Cat 1/2 hurricane entering the SE Bahamas, moving WNW in a favorable deep layer environment. This is an evolution of 92L into a mean looking system with potential to become powerful if taken verbatim - which of course is something we should never do!

However, although not as intense, the 12z UKMET run has virtually identical TC system placement with both 92L and the trailing developing system, as the Canadian. Interestingly, the GFS does not like 92L much...It instead develops the trailing system mightily into similarities to Hank's discussion regarding the particular system. They did not apparently run the GFDL for 92L on the 12z run, which is disappointing and actually odd that it was not.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Aug 10 2008 03:05 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ramp Up in Activity MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 10 2008 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity scottsvb   Mon Aug 11 2008 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity cieldumort   Mon Aug 11 2008 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity LoisCane   Mon Aug 11 2008 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 10 2008 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity spinup   Sun Aug 10 2008 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 10 2008 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 10 2008 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) cieldumort   Sun Aug 10 2008 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) craigm   Sun Aug 10 2008 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) Hugh   Sun Aug 10 2008 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) ltpat228   Sun Aug 10 2008 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) rmbjoe1954   Sun Aug 10 2008 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 10 2008 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) Mike V   Sun Aug 10 2008 02:29 PM
. * * Say hey Fay (time to play) HanKFranK   Sun Aug 10 2008 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 10 2008 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity craigm   Sun Aug 10 2008 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 10 2008 12:18 PM

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