Looks like someone said "the tropics are quiet" a bit too loud... 92L is certainly the further along of the two current "active" systems, but it's not there yet. Convection is currently on a downward trend after having been very impressive earlier today. Assuming it eventually develops, which I suspect will happen by Tuesday, the models seem to want to take it further north than I would have guessed from the upper-air flow maps I've seen. Puerto Rico, the D.R./Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and ultimately Florida will need to keep an eye out, I believe, but that's a long way off.
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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