... A DEEP CYCLONE DIGS SHARPLY FROM SW-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE US TO THE LEE OF THE RIDGE...LEADING TO A RETROGRESSION OF AN EARLY WEEK ERN NOAM TROUGH BACK TO THE E-CENTRAL US. THE COOLING SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO ACT TO FOCUS A LINGERING PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE FEEDS/POOLS DOWNSTREAM. THE EXTENT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DIGGING DIFFERS BETWEEN MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BUT THERE IS A CLEAR RECENT TREND TO FAVOR AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. EVEN ACTING CONSERVATIVELY FOR AUGUST...AN AMPLITUDE THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE FULL RANGE OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS WOULD STILL PRODUCE QUITE A POTENT TROUGH WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS UPWARDS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE EARLY TO MID AUGUST 2004 PATTERN. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT AS PER EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE IN ALMOST ALL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS. THIS TROUGH COULD EVEN PUMP UP DOWNSTREAM WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCES NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES/CARIBBEAN SEA. .......
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Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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