cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Ramp Up in Activity
Mon Aug 11 2008 01:08 AM
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It seems to me that an appreciable ramp-up in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is looking more and more plausible. Looking over loops from around the globe this weekend it could actually be said that to some degree all of the major northern hemispheric basins are firing almost in concert, with the Atlantic still possibly being held back primarily by continued intrusions of very dry, stable, dust-laden air coming off of the northwesternmost parts of Africa and maybe the southwesternmost portions of Europe.
The well-developed tropical wave (Invest 92L) already has very solid cyclonic flow in the lowest layers of the atmosphere (including the surface).. Dust surrounds the system, and it might end up being the wave that "takes one for the team," as several more waves are ready to march on through the same general area during the upcoming week. However, given that it has another two or so days, at the very least, in which to travel across very warm ocean waters and within in a lower shear regime, it could easily pop. Even allowing for still unforeseeable interactions with a nearby wave, 92L should have a somewhat favorable window for further development.
When it comes to track, as well as intensity, I have already tossed Sunday's model runs out, for now. Using them, one might be placing 92L well north of the Northern Leewards as a potent cyclone, and/or washing out completely by mid-week. Neither of these two scenarios looks solid enough to base any conclusions off of, as 92L has been held in check, and steered mostly along with the low level flows out of the east throughout the day Sunday. Probably best to hold out on buying much into any of the runs until - if - we get some convection actually sticking on its bones and/or a couple of recon flights into the puppy.
Other interesting features: Southern Caribbean - Disturbance which had originally been bubbling up primarily on the other side of Panama has been pulled a bit northward tonight, and with the aid of some diffluent airflow aloft, deep convection looks to be forming on along and maybe north of a weak surface trof in the area. Never something I take my eyes off of, but there is some hostile upper level wind to its north to contend with, if it continues on that way. And then, two disturbances right behind 92L - either one might find the atmo much more to its liking in the wake of 92L.
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