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Recon has departed Keesler to check out #93L in the SW Gulf. #92L is now just inland along SE GA coast. June systems can dump lots of rain.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 297 (Idalia) , Major: 297 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 297 (Idalia) Major: 297 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks
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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Ramp Up in Activity
      Mon Aug 11 2008 10:16 AM

I'll be kinda brief on this, but I have seen this year the models after 72hrs been off on strength of a system this year, especially the GFS. Tracks have done well, but time after time again we see a hurricane in 96-144hrs and it doesnt happen or its delayed. Eduardo was a exception but also home grown and the models probably had a better idea on something forming closer to home.

Until we get a TD, I wouldnt say or think how strong a system will be. After 72hrs module runs seem to change dramatically in strength a system might get, they might of shown a hurriane in 96 hrs but almost nothing 2 runs later.

Right now with 92L, it may never develop into more than a weak TS if at all due to dry air! Same with 93 L as dry air gets between the 2 systems. I think 92ls chance is better after 5 days in the S.E Bahamas., but dont believe the models strength after 72hrs.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ramp Up in Activity MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 11 2008 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity scottsvb   Mon Aug 11 2008 10:16 AM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity cieldumort   Mon Aug 11 2008 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity LoisCane   Mon Aug 11 2008 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 10 2008 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity spinup   Sun Aug 10 2008 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 10 2008 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 10 2008 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) cieldumort   Sun Aug 10 2008 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) craigm   Sun Aug 10 2008 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) Hugh   Sun Aug 10 2008 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) ltpat228   Sun Aug 10 2008 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) rmbjoe1954   Sun Aug 10 2008 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 10 2008 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Say hey Fay (time to play) Mike V   Sun Aug 10 2008 02:29 PM
. * * Say hey Fay (time to play) HanKFranK   Sun Aug 10 2008 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 10 2008 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity craigm   Sun Aug 10 2008 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Ramp Up in Activity typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 10 2008 12:18 PM

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