Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles
Mon Aug 11 2008 03:45 PM
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9PM EDT 13 August Update
The wave everyone is watching east of the Caribbean (92L) has not developed much today, and may not tomorrow, but is definitely worth keeping a watch on through the weekend it is the time of year where its prudent to watch. Those in Florida and the Southeastern US should take very close note on what this wave is doing over the next few days.
More immediately it may bring some showers to the northern lesser Antilles, and if it develops and doesn't get caught up in the Greater Antilles, could become a threat to the US early-mid next week. I would be watching the model trends closely over the next few days (see the model links below the article for animations, and more at the bottom and others on the Data Links.
Let us know what you think in the forecast lounge, a place for shooting the breeze about the storm (including discussion about the longer range models).
6:30 AM EDT 13 August Update
The basin is active, but nothing is imminent for development today it appears.
Not all that much has changed with the 92L situation since yesterday, it continues to move generally west northwest, and remains generally disorganized, being under some negative influences of shear. It appears this influence may go away at some point, so It may become a depression today. It more likely will not , however it still remains something to be watched for development based on model projections. If it does develop it will likely take some time.
93L to the east of it is also in a similar situation although that is much less likely to have any land impacts at this point.
12 August Update
92L remains the system to watch this week, both in the Leeward Islands and potentially here later, some models (such as the GFDL) put this system in the Bahamas in the weekend which could put the Southeast, the Gulf, or Florida potentially at risk sometime next week Then again, it appears the heading is wrong on the model initializations so it's likely its off a bit too much and would go further west (and south) than indicated.
These models are fairly inaccurate at long range and it does not mean it will do this, but could mean that this system should be monitored closely for the potential over the next several days. Let us know what you think in the forecast lounge
More to come as time progresses...
Mike
Original Update
Remembering that Invest areas are just tropical waves with some potential for additional development (and not 'sure things'), there is really nothing in the Atlantic basin to get concerned about yet. In modest to slightly above normal seasons it is not uncommon for an active July to be followed by a rather quiet August. Examples include 1944 (2 storms), 1966 (1 storm) and 1997 (none in August).
Invest 92L in the central Atlantic well east of the Windward Islands remains very disorganized near 11.6N 48.1W at 11/12Z. The wave is moving to the west northwest at 10-12 knots with most of the convection displaced to the west of the system because of easterly wind shear. The easterly shear should relax somewhat and give this system a small window of opportunity for additional development. If this development occurs (and thats a rather big IF at the moment), steering patterns would place the system near 19.5N 70.5W at 16/12Z moving to the west northwest to northwest at 7 knots. Winds are currently sustained at 20 knots with pressure at 1009MB. An active westerly shear zone from the Yucatan through the Caribbean Sea to the Windward Islands is not expected to change much in the next few days. By late Wednesday, the Invest 92L system will begin to encounter southwesterly wind shear as it approaches the Islands.
Invest 93L in the eastern Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has active but disorganized convection near 10.8N 28.8W at 11/12Z. This tropical wave, with sustained winds of 25 knots and a pressure of 1008MB, is moving to the west at 15 knots. Steering patterns would place this system near 18N 51W at 16/12Z with movement to the west northwest at 12 knots.
An area of active convection persists in the southern Caribbean Sea just to the north of Panama and just to the south of the westerly shear zone mentioned above.
Invest 93L probably has the best chance for eventual slow development as it moves within an area of lighter wind shear. The NAO trends notwithstanding, the shear zones in the tropical north Atlantic remain uncommonly strong for this part of the season. Models are really fodder for the Forecast Lounge when the existing patterns of dry air and wind shear simply don't support some of the current model outputs. The recipe for a 'grain of salt' applies quite well here, but we'll keep an eye on these areas just in case the overall pattern should suddenly change.
ED
Lesser Antilles Radar Mosaic
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|92L|92|6|2008|1|92L}}
{{StormLinks|93L|93|7|2008|2|93L}}
Edited by MikeC (Thu Aug 14 2008 03:03 AM)
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