Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATES WITH THE WAVE ALONG 78W AND SOUTH OF
19N...WITH CIRCULATION AFFECTING THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
PANAMA/COSTA RICA...WHERE THE 12 UTC RAOB FROM MPCZ SHOWED A VERY
UNCOMMON WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THIS
FLOW THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ IS NOW NORTH OF THE ISTHMUS INTO THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...AND THIS IS TO SUSTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PANAMA INTO EASTERN COSTA RICA/NORTHEAST HONDURAS.
OVERALL EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM. THROUGH 48-60 HRS EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. UNDER FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW PERSISTING/BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

VALID 12Z THU AUG 14 2008 - 12Z MON AUG 18 2008

OUT EAST...THE 00Z ECMWF PHASED A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH THE CLOSED CYCLONE IN QUEBEC WITH DRAMATIC
CONSEQUENCES /AN AUGUST NOREASTER./ CONSIDERING THE EARLIER
PREFERENCE OF THE 00Z GFS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OPC...DECIDED
TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS WITH
THIS FEATURE...JUST IN CASE...KEEPING IT A FLAT WAVE MOVING MORE
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND THAN ADVERTISED ON THE 00Z ECMWF. DOWN
SOUTH...THE LOW MOVING ACROSS CUBA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS A CONTINUATION OF THE TROPICAL LOW COORDINATED BETWEEN HPC/TPC
AT NOON YESTERDAY...WHICH ALSO SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 17 - 21 2008

...LAST NIGHT'S ECMWF MODEL RUN SHOWED A WEAKER TROUGH AND A
STRONGER BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE EAST, BUT THIS MODEL IS SEEN AS AN OUTLIER AT
THIS TIME. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS ABUNDANT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH, SOUTHEAST, AND
EAST COAST AREAS THANKS TO A STRONG INFLUX OF BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY CONSIDER THE IMPACTS OF
ANY PARTICULAR TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CONSENSUS
OF LAST NIGHT'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOWED TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THE 19TH. THIS STORM WOULD COME FROM INTENSIFICATION OF
THE CURRENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN, WHILE
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT FROM A DISTURBED AREA STILL
FARTHER EAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS WHICH STORM WOULD MAKE LANDFALL AND
WHEN AND WHERE THIS WOULD HAPPEN, BUT THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC APPEARS TO BE
ENTERING AN ACTIVE STAGE.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 11 2008 11:31 PM)

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