cieldumort
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Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Looking Around the Basin
Tue Aug 12 2008 04:44 AM
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A veritable cornucopia of possibilities exist for the wave/tropical low, 92L, and its brethren a little farther out behind it. Most of the mystery tonight has to do with how developed 92L already is, if it is, and to what extent the ULL to its north-northwest, and then the Bermuda High to follow, will play in its direction and development. With many possibilities, it's almost useless for much speculation until recon actually gets in there, flies the thing, tries to determine if a depression has already developed, or is about to, or is not nearly there at all, and what kind of environment it now finds itself in, now that it has seemingly veered way off course today.
Center reformation(s) and pull from the ULL have yanked the Invest well north of where it was expected to be by now. The Windwards may be close to an all-clear, but steering flow suggests that this northward jog may come to an end within the next 24-48 hours, with another sharp course correction to follow that could send it west, or even southwest.
At this time, based on satellite presentation only, it would be pretty easy for me to find an upgrade to TD possible (Tho a pretty lopsided TD, with convection all along the northern half, and virtually none south, but a depression, nonetheless). However, this assumes that a circulation is still tight and coherent at the surface, which is not at all clear at this time. Recon would help out with this tremendously.
There are reasons why we really need to know if 92L is or is not already a tropical cyclone well beyond the trivia. If a tropical cyclone has formed, or forms by the time recon is in there tomorrow, we might have a much better idea of how it is going to navigate the sidewindery steering currents ahead, and also if it is developed enough, and in enough of the right ways, as to have a better chance at fending off all the shear and dry air surrounding it and laying in wait.
Judging from total precipitable water content loops, 92L is already cocooned within a very symmetrical, spherical juice machine, and could surprise on the upside. But one wouldn't want to be the farm on it.
93L remains broad and elongated, but wrapped within a sub sandwich of deep-layered moisture and relatively low shear. As this system moves along to the west it might be the start of a turning point for more robust development should this elongation start to bunch up some more, allowing for real consolidation.
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