As of late this afternoon, recon was unable to close off a low, with regard to 92L. Also interestingly enough, there seemed to be slightly lower pressures south of 15N, most notibly south of what certainly appears as a fairly well developed mid level rotation.
Most recent model data from 12Z today shows the European model as being quite consistant in the last 2 days runs, in bringing a low WNWward north of the Greater Antilles, and generally toward the S. Florida area. GFDL 12Z run now has a 101kt. hurricane in the S. Bahamas moving WNW. GFS has been consistant in carrying a week low also towards the WNW ( between Cuba and S. Fla. ), though not yet developing it into anything. Latest 18Z NAM now bringing a deepening TS or hurricane west to WNW ( in 84 hrs.) just north of Dominican Republic. NAM doen't start to really wind up 92L until about 48 hr's, while GFDL is a little more "bullish" , showing development practically right away. Will be curious to see if the latest 18Z GFS run starts to join in tandem with some of the other runs, in developing 92L, or if it continues to be unimpressed with the system.
Visually, I am distinctly more impressed with the mid level circulation appeareant on vis. satellite, and yet less impressed with 92L downward pulse with regards to its appearance on IR. I do not see easterly shear, but in fact southerly to SW'erly shear. Upper air charts seem to indicate that an upper anticyclone develops over the system, with SW shear seemingly retrograding westward ( yet never quite to far to the west of 92L ).
Hurricane Andrew was an odd storm and a freak of nature - one that developed in a year so very different from this one. Only similarity at all, is how Andrew, after gaining significant latitude just east of the Lesser Antilles, suddenly bumped into a wall of a building ridge off the Southeast U.S., and suddenly turned sharply westward. In our current year, we are already seeing a potential for some long tracking systems ( al la Bertha ), and tracks which may originate in the W. Carib./Gulf. Would seem to me slightly out of place for a storm to form just east or north of the Virgin Islands, then to track westward from there. No doubt 92L is a weak system which could just as easily dissipate, however cannot help but take notice of model guidance. The consistancy of any model run, as would consistancy among the runs, at minimum bare our attention.
(Post moved to the appropriate Forum - see comments above.)
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