Ok, perfect for the lounge are more of the models tonight. NOGAPS sticks it into Florida, GFDL curves it north before florida, similar to the GFS, although the extra long range GFS then stalls it out off the coast for a day or so then moves it back westward over Florida (which is possible if a ridge develops over it at the time). The other interesting thing is nearly all the models are making the system into a hurricane.
It is also possible the system moves more westward than thought and into the Dominican Republic, so there is a lot of possibility here too, and if it does that it would mean big impacts for that and Hati, but possibly less for us.
However this is the lounge, these models right now are about as good as throwing darts blindfolded and drunk. Although the trends are what to look for, (check out the animations on the front page) Still look for somewhat a better idea if this system develops, and hopefully we'll know more over the weekend. However, Florida and the Southeast will want to know about the possibility something will be close early Tuesday-Wednesday , and the possibility for a storm stalling off the coast is also there. The bad thing about the current model trends, is if it were to approach Florida it would be at an angle that would make pinpointing a landfall very very difficult. (and again points at and just north of the landfall would see the worst). I still hold out it will remain weak and move more west.
1. Wait to see if the Storm actually develops 2. Watch it closely over the weekend (especially model trends)
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