Quote: This morning the model runs are looking much better for turn right and out to sea scenario (including the GFS based models), which may or may not happen, recon influenced model runs may happen later today. Until this storm develops it may be hard to say, but I hope the models continue to trend right and keep it away from the US.
I'm not so sure about this. The 00Z NOGAPS and UK model bring 92L straight over/into Florida. In fact, the NOGAPS run reminds me quite strongly of Charley's path (and since yesterday was the 4-year anniversary of that storm, I sure didn't need to be reminded of it!)
Those two models are very different from the GFDL and GFS, which are initialized from the same data. What could be causing such a big difference?
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