4 PM EDT 15 August Update The NHC's storm data files show that 92L will be classified as Tropical Storm Fay with 35 kt winds at 5 pm EDT. The full forecast package will be available within the hour.
11AM EDT 15 August Update Still pretty much the same as this morning, remains on the verge (but not quite) organization, and may later today before nearing Hispaniola.
Also Beyond the islands, it now appears Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas, Hati, Dominican Republic and south Florida and the Keys should be watching this one closely.
8AM EDT 15 August Update The wave near Puerto Rico (92L) still has not formed a low-level circulation, despite tons of convection, it is still generally moving toward the west and will likely have land interaction with Hati and the Dominican Republic, which is very mountainous. This likely would prevent much strengthening in the short term, or cause disruption to the system causing it to weaken . Recon aircraft will again be out there today searching for a low level circulation, which would indicate that a depression has formed, which it has about a 65% chance of doing so today.
The center is trying to form it seems, but it could be west and/or south of the Island .
Weaker systems, such as this, will tend to go further west. Those in Hati, the Dominican Republic, Southeastern Bahamas, and Eastern Cuba have the most to watch at this time.
Beyond that it really is still too early to tell, long range model runs aren't very reliable for weak systems like this. Most turn it north before Florida, however.
Some models move it over the island land masses of the Greater Antilles, If it does go over land it would keep the system weak or cause it to fall apart, leaving less an issue for the Southeast, but cause big problems (especially in Hati) because of vast amounts of rainfall.
Check back over the weekend to find out more, especially after the system develops (if it does).
Let us know what you think in the forecast lounge, a place for shooting the breeze about the storm (including discussion about the longer range models).
5PM EDT 14 August Update Aircraft recon has gone through the wave over/northeast of the Virgin Islands this afternoon and has determined that it still has not formed enough of a low level circulation to be considered a tropical depression, although it could become one at any time tonight or tomorrow.
Also those in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Eastern Cuba will want to watch this very closely. For those in Florida, and elsewhere check back late tomorrow or Saturday to see what happens after the storm develops.
8AM EDT 14 August Update A low pressure area within a tropical wave east of the lesser Antilles (aka 92L) is still moving westward this morning and will likely bring rain to the Northernmost Lesser Antilles, and possibly Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Development of the system is likely ether later today or tomorrow as the system is looking much better this morning overall.
Model projections in the long run may be a bit off, but the good news is that the normally better performing models and their current trends are turning it north before the US, the bad news is that it still hasn't developed and models aren't as trustworthy usually, especially if the system moves further due west. The Bahamas will need to watch this system extremely closely, though.
In short, those in the southeast still will keep an eye on this system. It may develop today or tomorrow, and it is worth keeping an eye on. Recon aircraft will be out there later today to help determine what the system is and gather data to help future forecast model runs, so watch trends. If the convection currently associated with the storm persists a bit we could see development into a depression today, negatives preventing this include finding a stable low level circulation near convection (which may keep it from developing fully today)
More to come as it happens...
Let us know what you think in the forecast lounge, a place for shooting the breeze about the storm (including discussion about the longer range models).
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