I'm not so sure about this. The 00Z NOGAPS and UK model bring 92L straight over/into Florida. In fact, the NOGAPS run reminds me quite strongly of Charley's path (and since yesterday was the 4-year anniversary of that storm, I sure didn't need to be reminded of it!)
Those two models are very different from the GFDL and GFS, which are initialized from the same data. What could be causing such a big difference?
I'm thinking the Nogaps is wrong on this one. The best way to handle something like this is to try think "Why wouldn't it hit the US?" instead of why it would.
In this case, it looks like it may head more west than north in the short term, which may cause some interaction with Hispaniola, if it does it will tear it up some, and now the models are trending to pull it north, which makes the north and out to sea scenario a bit more likely, and luckily keeps it away from Florida.
Even the GFDL this morning gets the system close to the somewhat coast but stays off shore where no direct effects could be felt (other than large waves). I'm cautiously optimistic about 92L right now not heading toward Florida, but I still want to see what recon finds today and will be more interested at looking at the system over the weekend than today or tomorrow.
Right now I don't trust the models, but I like what I see if it continues trending north and east.
0 registered and 208 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 117480
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center