vis satellite shows the LLC exposed to the WNW of the area of convection and passing over Anguilla heading about 275dg. I dont think they will make this a TD until the convection fires over the LLC. Winds are in excess of 40kts and it would probably bypass the TD status when this happens. I guess they could still upgrade it early if they feel they want to give out TS warnings to Puerto Rico.
Longer range is up in the air. I still follow the GFDL, and even though model trends 1 way from run to run, sometimes they jump right back to where they were predicting 24hrs ago.
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