Quote: when a storm gets classified, go with the GFDL unless its the outliner of models and also if the NHC says disregard it. Sometimes it will have a bad feedback of data in it (like any model can). Anyways GFDL model with the ECMWF and GFS blending in.
Scott is right.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 959 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008
AND THE NOAA DROPSONDES RELEASED IN VICINITY OF THE LOW THIS MORNING WERE BEFORE MODELS INITIALIZATION. THEREFORE...INITIALIZATION ERRORS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
USED YESTERDAYS COORDINATED TRACK FOR THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...WITH A SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FOR THE DAY 7 POINT IN LIGHT OF THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL SENDS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA...REPRESENTING THE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL ENVELOPE...WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS SHEARING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA DEFINING THIS GUIDANCE TO THE RIGHT. WILL HAVE ANOTHER COORDINATION WITH TPC TODAY AND TAKE A FRESH LOOK AT THIS SYSTEM.
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