Quote: when a storm gets classified, go with the GFDL unless its the outliner of models and also if the NHC says disregard it. Sometimes it will have a bad feedback of data in it (like any model can). Anyways GFDL model with the ECMWF and GFS blending in.
Scott is right.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 959 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008
AND THE NOAA DROPSONDES RELEASED IN VICINITY OF THE LOW THIS MORNING WERE BEFORE MODELS INITIALIZATION. THEREFORE...INITIALIZATION ERRORS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
USED YESTERDAYS COORDINATED TRACK FOR THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...WITH A SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FOR THE DAY 7 POINT IN LIGHT OF THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL SENDS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA...REPRESENTING THE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL ENVELOPE...WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS SHEARING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA DEFINING THIS GUIDANCE TO THE RIGHT. WILL HAVE ANOTHER COORDINATION WITH TPC TODAY AND TAKE A FRESH LOOK AT THIS SYSTEM.
0 registered and 195 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 117480
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center