Fay Forecast Lounge - FLHurricane.com

"Faybe yes and Fabe no". As recon data continues to come in, I saw one extrapolated report of 1004mb ( at 17.7N & 61.5W ). As well, some various wind reports of winds near 40kt. This all said, the strongest west wind I had noticed as of about 10 minutes ago, was about 8mph. Here's my take.....

I believe 92L is a depression by most definitions, yet truly still tilted somewhat. Though what I have seen would seem to close off a low, there is certainly the chance while this system is "on the cusp", for the convection to wane, and perhaps go through yet another cycle perhaps this evening or early tommorrow a.m. to finally get its act together. Still remaining a distinct possibility of this borderline shallow system to track 270 degrees ( westward ) and be disrupted by P.R. In fact, as I type this, the cloud tops have warmed slightly, and it is my own opinion that given a continuity of deep convection, even in close proximity to the westward tilted lower surface pressures, it would have been tagged a depression by 5:00pm. If there is a pause in the deep convection and the cloud tops much less cold than earlier, than it may be borderline enough to delay an upgrade to depression. This all said, slow continued organization may still require such designation tonight. I do not believe "Fay" will be named immediately, IF upgraded later today or evening. If upgraded in the very near term, I believe to a depression. Tommorow a.m could be another thing.

With regards to forecast models, I have a good respect for the GFDL, but moreso AFTER the TC is a fairly established vertical system. All models may be viewed with a little more accuracy when a "true fix" may truly establish actual location and forward speed of motion. This said, I have always looked at the GFS, UK, and Euro as well for motion. NOGAPS as well, though it tends to be very conservative on intensity. Of course one need look at the BAMD layer too ( given a well established TC ). Only caviot is that here too, I find certain models to carry small Trop. Cyclones better, while larger Hurricanes tend to not only be affected by downstream influences, but tend interact and even alter certain upper or mid level impacts.

In looking at the latest 12Z GFDL, it appeared to me that there was a slight ( and I do mean slight ) track adjustment towards the west. Look, all of the models, even if consistant will vary at least a little from run to run. Simple point would seem to be that "if" this system does not get disrupted by land, than the upper air seems conducive for a Tropical Storm or hurricane to be just north of the Greater Antilles for at least a couple days. After that, could recurve - could move westward. There does not yet seem to be too much confidence in the 4-7 day steering flow over the Bahamas / S.E. U.S. yet. This picture may become clear soon, but not quite yet.

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