Tropical Storm Fay Forms - FLHurricane.com

Not a ton to add to HF's analysis from earlier, but I'll chime in with a few notes...

92L has the look that is typical to disturbances that race through the Caribbean, looking nice and healthy but primarily focused in the mid-levels. 92L isn't racing, though, but it isn't immediately obvious if there's a well-defined surface low and, if so, where it is in relation to the mid-level center. There is healthy diffluence aloft, largely provided by the upper low centered on the eastern end of Cuba, and a nice outflow channel to the east provided by the upper low about 29N/55W if it wants to take advantage of that. Ultimately, it will develop, the question is just of where it goes from here? There's been a fair amount of clustering in forecast tracks along or just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola; obviously, any deviation southward will greatly complicate the intensity and track forecasts. It goes without saying, but anyone from the central Gulf up the southeast coast -- particularly Florida -- needs to watch this one.

What is left of 93L is currently centered 14N/47W and is about one convective burst away from turning the NHC's "Low" development probabilities into "High" probabilities once again. It is finally starting to escape a more stable environment characterized by marginal SSTs and some mid-level dust, moving into a warmer, cleaner environment as it nears 50W. Like 92L, it has a well-defined outflow channel, this one provided by an upper low near 32N/36W. The two disturbances are far enough apart that both have a chance to develop, with 93L likely to take the Caribbean route rather than the Bahamas path that 92L looks to be headed along. We'll reevaluate this one in a couple of days.

The disturbance HF alluded to out near the Cape Verdes is likely to end up as 94L later today or tomorrow. The GFS in particular has been very aggressive in developing that system and having it cause trouble somewhere in the basin in the next couple of weeks. Just something to watch for as we head toward the peak of the season.

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