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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


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Posts: 1710
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
      Thu Aug 14 2008 03:54 PM

Not a ton to add to HF's analysis from earlier, but I'll chime in with a few notes...

92L has the look that is typical to disturbances that race through the Caribbean, looking nice and healthy but primarily focused in the mid-levels. 92L isn't racing, though, but it isn't immediately obvious if there's a well-defined surface low and, if so, where it is in relation to the mid-level center. There is healthy diffluence aloft, largely provided by the upper low centered on the eastern end of Cuba, and a nice outflow channel to the east provided by the upper low about 29N/55W if it wants to take advantage of that. Ultimately, it will develop, the question is just of where it goes from here? There's been a fair amount of clustering in forecast tracks along or just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola; obviously, any deviation southward will greatly complicate the intensity and track forecasts. It goes without saying, but anyone from the central Gulf up the southeast coast -- particularly Florida -- needs to watch this one.

What is left of 93L is currently centered 14N/47W and is about one convective burst away from turning the NHC's "Low" development probabilities into "High" probabilities once again. It is finally starting to escape a more stable environment characterized by marginal SSTs and some mid-level dust, moving into a warmer, cleaner environment as it nears 50W. Like 92L, it has a well-defined outflow channel, this one provided by an upper low near 32N/36W. The two disturbances are far enough apart that both have a chance to develop, with 93L likely to take the Caribbean route rather than the Bahamas path that 92L looks to be headed along. We'll reevaluate this one in a couple of days.

The disturbance HF alluded to out near the Cape Verdes is likely to end up as 94L later today or tomorrow. The GFS in particular has been very aggressive in developing that system and having it cause trouble somewhere in the basin in the next couple of weeks. Just something to watch for as we head toward the peak of the season.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Fay Forms MikeCAdministrator Thu Aug 14 2008 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms allan   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:08 AM
. * * New Center Reforming South near coast? berrywr   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:58 AM
. * * East Side of Storm danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Loudest Tundra in Florida   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms JonB   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms damejune2   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico craigm   Fri Aug 15 2008 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms chase 22   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms metwannabe   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Morgan Palmer K5TVT   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Ronn   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Lamar-Plant City   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms enterlaughing   Fri Aug 15 2008 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms doug   Fri Aug 15 2008 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Fri Aug 15 2008 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Ed in Va   Fri Aug 15 2008 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Robert   Fri Aug 15 2008 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico AdvAutoBob   Fri Aug 15 2008 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Ed in Va   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico B_from_NC   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico craigm   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Rabbit   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico doug   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico LoisCane   Fri Aug 15 2008 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico lawgator   Fri Aug 15 2008 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico LIWPB   Fri Aug 15 2008 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 15 2008 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico scottsvb   Fri Aug 15 2008 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico scottsvb   Fri Aug 15 2008 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico metwannabe   Fri Aug 15 2008 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Robert   Fri Aug 15 2008 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Robert   Fri Aug 15 2008 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico biff_the_upset   Fri Aug 15 2008 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Adam S.   Fri Aug 15 2008 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico cieldumort   Fri Aug 15 2008 01:13 PM
. * * Re: 92L center tampa_looter   Fri Aug 15 2008 12:45 PM
. * * Re: 92L center tampa_looter   Fri Aug 15 2008 12:42 PM
. * * What should Floridians be on the lookout for? vineyardsaker   Fri Aug 15 2008 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands scottsvb   Fri Aug 15 2008 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands chase 22   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico CDMOrlando   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands follydude   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:26 AM
. * * Re: 92L center Adam S   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:22 AM
. * * Re: 92L center charlottefl   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:18 AM
. * * Re: 92L center B_from_NC   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:17 AM
. * * Re: 92L center weathernet   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:08 AM
. * * 92L center Adam S   Fri Aug 15 2008 10:54 AM
. * * Re: 93L??? weathernet   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Adam S   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles metwannabe   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Adam S   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:20 AM
. * * Re: 93L??? Rich B   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Adam S   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:11 AM
. * * 93L??? ltpat228   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:55 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:54 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles doug   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles scottsvb   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles cchsweatherman   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles craigm   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Beach   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Clark   Fri Aug 15 2008 02:58 AM
. * * Re: Admin Note Robert   Fri Aug 15 2008 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Admin Note scottsvb   Fri Aug 15 2008 12:35 AM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2008 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands WeatherNut   Thu Aug 14 2008 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands TheOtherRick   Thu Aug 14 2008 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands scottsvb   Thu Aug 14 2008 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands WeatherNut   Thu Aug 14 2008 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands CaneTrackerInSoFl   Thu Aug 14 2008 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands jessiej   Thu Aug 14 2008 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 14 2008 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Steve H1   Thu Aug 14 2008 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands Ed in Va   Thu Aug 14 2008 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands javlin   Thu Aug 14 2008 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands charlottefl   Thu Aug 14 2008 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands Rookie from 33913   Thu Aug 14 2008 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands craigm   Thu Aug 14 2008 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands Rookie from 33913   Thu Aug 14 2008 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands craigm   Thu Aug 14 2008 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands cieldumort   Thu Aug 14 2008 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 14 2008 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles mar32366   Thu Aug 14 2008 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Colleen A.   Thu Aug 14 2008 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles sophie   Thu Aug 14 2008 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Clark   Thu Aug 14 2008 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles hwood   Thu Aug 14 2008 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 14 2008 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Colleen A.   Thu Aug 14 2008 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles cieldumort   Thu Aug 14 2008 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles CDMOrlando   Thu Aug 14 2008 01:42 PM
. * * Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... Robert   Thu Aug 14 2008 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 14 2008 08:46 AM

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