Looking at the SJU long-range radar now, the apparent LLC is just on the edge of the radar's range, moving basically due west on a course that will take it just north of San Juan. That'll put the strongest side of the storm away from the island, and keep it over water, I'm afraid. Comparing the radar with the AVN loop, it does appear that the LLC has not yet tucked itself completely in the middle of the convection, but that's not shocking since the system has not yet been classified (when the circulation is apparent on radar, and it's so close to land, I would have thought the NHC would go ahead and pull the trigger, but they haven't.... but the convection has not persisted for several hours over a single LLC, either).
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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