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Recon has departed Keesler to check out #93L in the SW Gulf. #92L is now just inland along SE GA coast. June systems can dump lots of rain.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 297 (Idalia) , Major: 297 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 297 (Idalia) Major: 297 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks
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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands
      Thu Aug 14 2008 11:31 PM

92L is really on forecast with the GFDL and GFS...both dont expect any big development for another 24-36hrs...it may make it up to a weak storm before then, but still as I said earlier today the LLC was out infront even though most still wanted it to be in the CDO. This should show that even though it may look impressive on IR, the LLC needs to have thunderstorms near its center along with a full circular windfield. Having a center exposed will not upgrade a system, even if it has 50kt winds in squalls 150 miles from the LLC.

With this said, I dont see any major increase tonight into Friday. Sure it may still get classified if the LLC gets storms over it, and that could happen anytime, but it wont strengthen more than a weak TS by Friday night as it gets near 70W.

With the path of this, still follow the GFDL for best guidance. The run will change slightly from run to run but it has the overall best performance. First off it it becomes a stronger TS before 70W it will be furtherest east making the turn sooner. A weaker system heading near Cuba might take this more W towards the Keys and S Florida, if it becomes a strong TS before 75W then a turn NNW towards the central and northern bahamas will ensue. There is still some question on the strength of the ridge Saturday into Sunday over the eastern bahamas. Just alittle more heights will make the turn NW instead of NNW.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Fay Forms MikeCAdministrator Thu Aug 14 2008 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms allan   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:08 AM
. * * New Center Reforming South near coast? berrywr   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:58 AM
. * * East Side of Storm danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Loudest Tundra in Florida   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms JonB   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms damejune2   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico craigm   Fri Aug 15 2008 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms chase 22   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms metwannabe   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Morgan Palmer K5TVT   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Ronn   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Lamar-Plant City   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms enterlaughing   Fri Aug 15 2008 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms doug   Fri Aug 15 2008 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Fri Aug 15 2008 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Ed in Va   Fri Aug 15 2008 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay Forms Robert   Fri Aug 15 2008 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico AdvAutoBob   Fri Aug 15 2008 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Ed in Va   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Storm Hunter   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico B_from_NC   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico craigm   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Rabbit   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico doug   Fri Aug 15 2008 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico LoisCane   Fri Aug 15 2008 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico lawgator   Fri Aug 15 2008 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico LIWPB   Fri Aug 15 2008 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 15 2008 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico scottsvb   Fri Aug 15 2008 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico scottsvb   Fri Aug 15 2008 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico metwannabe   Fri Aug 15 2008 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Robert   Fri Aug 15 2008 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Robert   Fri Aug 15 2008 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico biff_the_upset   Fri Aug 15 2008 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico Adam S.   Fri Aug 15 2008 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico cieldumort   Fri Aug 15 2008 01:13 PM
. * * Re: 92L center tampa_looter   Fri Aug 15 2008 12:45 PM
. * * Re: 92L center tampa_looter   Fri Aug 15 2008 12:42 PM
. * * What should Floridians be on the lookout for? vineyardsaker   Fri Aug 15 2008 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands scottsvb   Fri Aug 15 2008 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands chase 22   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico CDMOrlando   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands follydude   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:26 AM
. * * Re: 92L center Adam S   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:22 AM
. * * Re: 92L center charlottefl   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:18 AM
. * * Re: 92L center B_from_NC   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:17 AM
. * * Re: 92L center weathernet   Fri Aug 15 2008 11:08 AM
. * * 92L center Adam S   Fri Aug 15 2008 10:54 AM
. * * Re: 93L??? weathernet   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Adam S   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles metwannabe   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Adam S   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:20 AM
. * * Re: 93L??? Rich B   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Adam S   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:11 AM
. * * 93L??? ltpat228   Fri Aug 15 2008 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MichaelA   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:55 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:54 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles doug   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles scottsvb   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near Puerto Rico CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles cchsweatherman   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles craigm   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Beach   Fri Aug 15 2008 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Clark   Fri Aug 15 2008 02:58 AM
. * * Re: Admin Note Robert   Fri Aug 15 2008 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Admin Note scottsvb   Fri Aug 15 2008 12:35 AM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 15 2008 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands WeatherNut   Thu Aug 14 2008 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands TheOtherRick   Thu Aug 14 2008 11:44 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands scottsvb   Thu Aug 14 2008 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands WeatherNut   Thu Aug 14 2008 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands CaneTrackerInSoFl   Thu Aug 14 2008 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands jessiej   Thu Aug 14 2008 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 14 2008 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Steve H1   Thu Aug 14 2008 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands Ed in Va   Thu Aug 14 2008 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands javlin   Thu Aug 14 2008 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands charlottefl   Thu Aug 14 2008 08:37 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands Rookie from 33913   Thu Aug 14 2008 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands craigm   Thu Aug 14 2008 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands Rookie from 33913   Thu Aug 14 2008 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands craigm   Thu Aug 14 2008 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands cieldumort   Thu Aug 14 2008 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 14 2008 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles mar32366   Thu Aug 14 2008 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Colleen A.   Thu Aug 14 2008 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles sophie   Thu Aug 14 2008 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Clark   Thu Aug 14 2008 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles hwood   Thu Aug 14 2008 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 14 2008 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles Colleen A.   Thu Aug 14 2008 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles cieldumort   Thu Aug 14 2008 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles CDMOrlando   Thu Aug 14 2008 01:42 PM
. * * Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... Robert   Thu Aug 14 2008 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 14 2008 08:46 AM

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