92L is really on forecast with the GFDL and GFS...both dont expect any big development for another 24-36hrs...it may make it up to a weak storm before then, but still as I said earlier today the LLC was out infront even though most still wanted it to be in the CDO. This should show that even though it may look impressive on IR, the LLC needs to have thunderstorms near its center along with a full circular windfield. Having a center exposed will not upgrade a system, even if it has 50kt winds in squalls 150 miles from the LLC.
With this said, I dont see any major increase tonight into Friday. Sure it may still get classified if the LLC gets storms over it, and that could happen anytime, but it wont strengthen more than a weak TS by Friday night as it gets near 70W.
With the path of this, still follow the GFDL for best guidance. The run will change slightly from run to run but it has the overall best performance. First off it it becomes a stronger TS before 70W it will be furtherest east making the turn sooner. A weaker system heading near Cuba might take this more W towards the Keys and S Florida, if it becomes a strong TS before 75W then a turn NNW towards the central and northern bahamas will ensue. There is still some question on the strength of the ridge Saturday into Sunday over the eastern bahamas. Just alittle more heights will make the turn NW instead of NNW.
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