Best I can tell, based on surface and buoys obs, as well as radar loops, the weak center of 92's broad circulation may be on the eastern tip of Haiti, and about to pass along the southern half of the island.. possibly skirting the south coast. There are no longer any obs suggesting that a respectable llc is north of the island. Most likely, we have been seeing a continuation of the past several day's worth of transient LLC formations and reformations within the much broader surface circulation...
And some important distinctions between prior days and this afternoon - the broader surface circulation isn't nearly as broad, now. Also, the possible surface center at the eastern tip of DR/Haiti would be much more co-located with the MLC and right about under the deepest thunderstorms.
Unless the current recon mission finds otherwise, surface observations suggest that the winds really do not yet come close enough to supporting an upgrade to a named storm at this time - and especially considering that the Low is about to travel over some exceedingly high hills and mountains, any appreciable increase in intensity from here is unlikely until it fully jumps these hurdles one way or another (crosses the island, center reformations, scoots to the south or north).
As a precautionary reminder, 92L continues to be very challenging for models to forecast. Until a low level center is fully established, and now also until 92 gets across this island, focusing on the model runs, while sometimes instructional if you know what you are doing, is still largely fool's bait.
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