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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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DarleneCane
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 20
Loc: Miami Beach, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba
      Sat Aug 16 2008 07:42 AM

Her feeder bands and her strong area of convection over water is keeping her stronger than one would think for a storm over land. A good part of her remains over water and this trend will continue even more as she moves west. This can be seen on the water vapor loop here.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I would also think that as she was intensifying and formed over land she would be less hurt by land than a strong storm that hits land after functioning better over water. I don't know if there is any scientific explanation for this but from observation I have seen the mtns of Haiti have less of an affect on such storms.

As for the high pressure ridge, if Fay intensifies as she may be doing would that not help break down the ridge earlier than expected? The models previously kept Fay as a weaker storm at this point and did not account for an intensification.

The waters of the Windward Passage are hot and depending where she hits it she would be over very warm water for some time leading to further intensification.

I would think the models may shift back to the left somewhat if she does intensify.

--------------------
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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Clark Sat Aug 16 2008 07:42 AM
. * * Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008 craigm   Sun Aug 17 2008 09:18 AM
. * * Re: East Coast Lee-Delray   Sun Aug 17 2008 09:01 AM
. * * East Coast Beach   Sun Aug 17 2008 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008 OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 17 2008 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008 Storm Cooper   Sun Aug 17 2008 05:13 AM
. * * Morning AFD roundup danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 17 2008 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... chase 22   Sun Aug 17 2008 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... weathernet   Sun Aug 17 2008 02:25 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... scottsvb   Sun Aug 17 2008 02:08 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... weathernet   Sun Aug 17 2008 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... vmzamorano   Sun Aug 17 2008 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... scottsvb   Sun Aug 17 2008 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 17 2008 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... Clark   Sun Aug 17 2008 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... LoisCane   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Just a couple of quick notes... Mike N   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:14 PM
. * * Just a couple of quick notes... Clark   Sat Aug 16 2008 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? doug   Sat Aug 16 2008 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? Genesis   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? StormHound   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Questions Bev   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? weathernet   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? Hugh   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? pcbjr   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? WeatherNut   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? Steve H1   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Questions mikethewreck   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley? engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Robert   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Hugh   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:36 PM
. * * Could Fay turn into a Charley? vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:34 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Steve H1   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? WeatherNut   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lee-Delray   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lee-Delray   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? chase 22   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 16 2008 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? flanewscameraman   Sat Aug 16 2008 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? BillD   Sat Aug 16 2008 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? jayb   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... Lee-Delray   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Here we go...... FIREREALTY   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? JMII   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? engicedave   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lee-Delray   Sat Aug 16 2008 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? lunkerhunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Renter's Insurance?? FIREREALTY   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? KC   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:31 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? saluki   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? conschscooter   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Beaumont, TX   Sat Aug 16 2008 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? laurie66   Sat Aug 16 2008 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Storm Hunter   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? VolusiaMike   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Steve H1   Sat Aug 16 2008 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? WeatherNut   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:46 PM
. * * wondering!!! watchinout   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? B_from_NC   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? laurie66   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? craigm   Sat Aug 16 2008 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Beaumont, TX   Sat Aug 16 2008 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Lamar-Plant City   Sat Aug 16 2008 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? charlottefl   Sat Aug 16 2008 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? bradrd   Sat Aug 16 2008 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? Wxwatcher2   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? DaViking   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? charlottefl   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Center reforming? DarleneCane   Sat Aug 16 2008 10:20 AM
. * * Center reforming? pcola   Sat Aug 16 2008 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba charlottefl   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba ftlaudbob   Sat Aug 16 2008 08:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba DarleneCane   Sat Aug 16 2008 07:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Aesh   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:05 AM
. * * ship obs Robert   Sat Aug 16 2008 06:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Clark   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba Storm Cooper   Sat Aug 16 2008 03:36 AM

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